Almost a decade ago, I was cleaning up the many catalogues that lay across the coffee table and couch (my partner at the time had an unnatural obsession with them which drove me mad) and happened to notice an unusual book for sale. It was titled 50 predictions of doomsday (from memory – the net is alight with paranoid discussions regarding 2012 that a quick google search cannot retrieve the book).
To the bewilderment of my partner back then, I found this hysterical. It’s no more than predicting (or more appropriately guessing, without meaningful evidence) how many jelly beans are in the jar. That the book provides 50 “predictions” if anything weakens it’s position, rather than strengthens it.
All you need for anything is one hypothesis that that is tested and retested rigorously and independently and supported by other complimentary studies also carried out in a like fashion – that is to say, it’s not how many hypotheses you have, but rather how many times you’ve tested the one hypothesis, by various methods and forces to draw the same conclusion.
Another way to explain it would be to have a box of chocolates. It’s a pack of 30, laid out in three trays of ten. Only one has been consumed.
Of the nine that remain, you can tell that all are caramel centred; does this suggest that the one gone was also caramel centred? Maybe, but not necessarily.
Further investigation reveals that the second tray is also completely full of caramel centred chocolates, but still you could be cautious. Even when the third tray reveals nothing but caramel centred chocolates, you could argue that maybe it was an unfortunate (or fortunate depending on your tastes) statistical streak, but you would certainly argue, with greater confidence as you explored the trays, that the one missing chocolate was very likely to also have been caramel centred.
That is the type of confidence expressed in science. It’s based on increasing evidence.
Opposed to this is the more natural behaviour as expressed by the book above. It’s an assertion that relies on there being so many hypotheses as support; so many people have guessed of a doomsday, therefore it’s inevitable. And it is inevitable – the solar system cannot live forever, so we can be asserted of a kind of doomsday, but not because some prophet guessed it, but because science has increased our understanding of the behaviour of suns.
This is in many ways my problem with Andrew’s (aka Poptech) list of 800 papers supporting scepticism of AGW alarm.
To return to the chocolate analogy, no one chocolate alone proves or disproves the caramel centre of the missing piece – it is all the chocolates together that increase our certainty. It’s that the evidence of each piece together reinforce the conclusions of the others leading us to make assumptions about the unknowns.
Let’s say that the process line isn’t perfect. Occasionally a dud chocolate is spat out that don’t have a caramel centre and sometimes – not too often – some nuts from a neighbouring conveyor belt spill and contaminate the caramel centred chocolate process. Of course, these imperfections would need to be weeded out – welcome to the peer-review process.
Andrew effectively pushes the box of climate science box of chocolates side and fills a new 30 piece box. Some are indeed caramel centred, while others are from the reject bin (heavily criticised studies) and others still are from a completely different manufacture (social or economical that have little to do with questioning the reality of AGW, therefore have limited impact on addressing AGW alarm). Now deducing what the missing piece is becomes impossible.
There is no meaningful expression in the assortment. Some of the chocolates even impossible to classify. Some may appear reasonable – without reference as to why they were in the reject bin. Does this disprove that the missing piece was a caramel centred chocolate? Of course not. Such a list does nothing to prove or disprove anything. It’s just a random collection that supports no conclusions of any sort at all, except that they are in fact chocolate, which is more or less meaningless to the point.
This whole annoying episode start with Adam challenging me with Andrew’s list;
“I gave you 800 peer reviewed scientific papers supporting skeptisicm of AGW/AGW alarm… when there are over 850 scientific papers supporting skeptisicm of AGW, surrely to any same person, that would at least provide some reason to question the theory.”
I’ve tried in great detail to explain the problems inherent in such a preposterous position; it’s not a game of who has more papers or what one paper states by itself – but rather a coherent conclusion drawn by many independent studies that all together in our confidence in a certain conclusion.
For what it’s worth, Andrew has fragmentally stated as much about his list;
“No claim is made that the list is only of natural science papers (though many of these exist on the list) but rather that they are all peer-reviewed. The list does not only include papers that support skepticism of AGW but also ones that support skepticism of AGW Alarm, defined as concern relating to a negative environmental or socio-economic effect of AGW, usually exaggerated as catastrophic. The list is not a unified theory but a resource.”
From this, I can only conclude that the list is nothing but a haphazard list of random science, social and economic articles that while together cannot form a sensible coherent alternative – indeed many of the papers even contradict each other – but rather forms an inconsistent catalogue of various reports to encourage various forms of AGW “scepticism”.
In the general style of such people, he’s gone on and on and on and on and on about my language rather than a coherent basis for his reasoning… I’m sick of making the required corrections, explaining why certain changes won’t be made and basically wasting my time talking to someone I don’t I just don’t want to talk to.
To some up, I really don’t think his list stands as a tower, opposing some orthodoxy of AGW (not that I’m suggesting Andrew does, but certainly fans of his do), but instead is little more than a random scattering of bricks that he has laid out so that the so-called AGW “sceptics” can hurl them at us “alarmists” or “warmist” and has little to do with scientific reasoning and investigation. It’s just an easy go-to place for the busy troll to stop by, chose a paper and demand others in the blogosphere “prove it wrong” (or if they’re lazy, link back to the entire list and demand as Adam did).
I, on the other hand, will slowly build by a counter list that more rigorously focuses on the science – the observed, the tested, the modelled and projected – of all matters anthropogenic global warming, related environmental concern and impacts on humanity, thereby not providing a chaotic assortment of ideas, but rather mutually supporting studies that have led to our confidence in the AGW theory (I assure you, not as easy a task as it would be to grab any “sceptical” paper available – ie. it’s harder to accumulate evidence to support the conclusion about the missing chocolate than it is to collect chocolate of any sort).
The most recently added papers with 50 blocks (ie. 50, 100, 150..) are flagged with (NEW), which is removed when I hit the next point. I’ll be updating often, so please check about regularly (the updating title will tell you at 10 paper intervals where I’m up to).
Note: I apologise, some papers will be behind a pay wall.
General Climate papers
Stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry in global climate change research
– Ghosh and Brand (2003) International Journal of Mass Spectrometry
Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost
– DeConto, Galeotti, Pagani, Tracy, Schaefer, Zhang, Pollard and Beerling (2012) Nature
How sensitive is climate sensitivity?
Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon
– Sexton, Norris, Wilson, Pälike, Westerhold, Röhl, Bolton and Gibbs (2011) Nature
Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
– Mann, Zhang, Hughes, Bradley, Miller, Rutherford and Ni (2008) PNAS
Sources, media, and modes of climate change communication: the role of celebrities
– Anderson (2011) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (I included this because AGW has given celebrities another excuse to bore us all, thinking that their point of view is very important)
Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction
– Možný, Brázdil, Dobrovolný and Trnka (2011) Climatic Change
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
– Mann,Zhang, Rutherford, Bradley, Hughes, Shindell, Ammann, Faluvegi and Ni (2009) Science
Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity
– Tanaka, Raddatz, O’Neill and Reick (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
Constraining climate sensitivity with linear fits to outgoing radiation
– Murphy (2010) Geophysical Research Letters
Feedback and sensitivity in an electrical circuit: an analog for climate models
– Schwartz (2010) Climatic Change
Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?
– Haywood, Ridgwell, Lunt, Hill, Pound, Dowsett, Dolan, Francis and Williams (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
The Columbian Encounter and the Little Ice Age: Abrupt Land Use Change, Fire, and Greenhouse Forcing
– Dull, Nevle, Woods, Bird, Avnery and Denevan (2010) Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Not SCI listed) – Really interesting
Global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus
– Burkhardt and Kärcher (2011) Nature Climate Change
The Roles of CO2 and Orbital Forcing in Driving Southern Hemispheric Temperature Variations during the Last 21 000 Yr
– Timmermann, Timm, Stott and Menviel (2009) Journal of Climate
The Anthropocene: a new epoch of geological time?
– Zalasiewicz, Williams, Haywood and Ellis (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction
– Cuffey and Vimeux (2001) Nature
Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols
– Jacobson (2001) Nature
Greenhouse crises of the past 300 million years
– Retallack (2009) Geological Society of America Bulletin
Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene
– Doney and Schimel (2007) Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years
– Crowley (2000) Nature
Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters
– Kaspi and Schneider (2011) Nature – In response to; “freak cold in region X disproves warming!”
Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001
– Jones and Moberg (2003) Journal of Climate
Revisiting the determination of climate sensitivity from relationships between surface temperature and radiative fluxes
– Chung, Soden and Sohn (2010) Geophysical Research Letters
Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change
– Gregory and Forster (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research
Depth of Convection and the Weakening of Tropical Circulation in Global Warming
– Chou and Chen (2010) Journal of Climate
A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade
– Dessler (2010) Science
The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions
– Matthews, Gillett, Stott and Zickfeld (2009) Nature
Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000
– Wild, Trüssel, Ohmura, Long, König-Langlo, Dutton and Tsvetkov (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research
The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes
– Knutti and Hegerl (2008) Nature Geoscience
Warming trends in Asia amplified by brown cloud solar absorption
– Ramanathan, Ramana, Roberts, Kim, Corrigan, Chung and Winker (2007) Nature
A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008
– Perlwitz, Hoerling, Eischeid, Xu and Kumar (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
Anthropogenic Warming of Earth’s Climate System
– Levitus, Antonov, Wang, Delworth, Dixon and Broccoli (2001) Science
Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
– Cox, Betts, Jones, Spall and Totterdell (2000) Nature
High sea-surface temperatures during the Early Cretaceous Epoch
– Littler, Robinson, Bown, Nederbragt and Pancost (2011) Nature Geoscience
Is the climate warming or cooling?
– Easterling and Wehner (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979–2007
– Allan and Zveryaev (2011) International Journal of Climatology
Observed changes in precipitation on the wettest days of the year in China, 1960–2000
– Liu, Henderson, Xu and Zhang (2011) International Journal of Climatology
Trends in heavy precipitation in the Czech Republic over 1961–2005
– Kyselý (2009) International Journal of Climatology
External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
– Stott, Tett, Jones, Allen, Mitchell and Jenkins (2000) Science
Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years
– Royer, Berner and Park (2007) Nature
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
– Schär, Vidale, Lüthi, Frei, Häberli, Liniger and Appenzeller (2004) Nature
An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity
– Gregory, Stouffer, Raper, Stott and Rayner (2000) Journal of Climate
Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system
– Schwartz (2007) Journal of Geophysical Research
Modern Global Climate Change
– Karl and Trenberth (2003) Science
Australian climate–carbon cycle feedback reduced by soil black carbon
– Lehmann, Skjemstad, Sohi, Carter, Barson, Falloon, Coleman, Woodbury and Krull (2008) Nature Geoscience
How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?
– Lean and Rind (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future
– Andreae, Jones and Cox (2005) Nature
An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950
– Murphy, Solomon, Portmann, Rosenlof, Forster and Wong (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research
Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective
– Stott, Gillett, Hegerl, Karoly, Stone, Zhang and Zwiers (2010) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century
– Shindell and Faluvegi (2009) Nature Geoscience
Climate change and trace gases
– Hansen, Sato, Kharecha, Russell, Lea and Siddall (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Satellite measurements of the clear-sky greenhouse effect from tropospheric ozone
– Worden, Bowman, Worden, Eldering and Beer (2008) Nature Geoscience
Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming
– Solomon, Rosenlof, Portmann, Daniel, Davis, Sanford and Plattner (2010) Science
Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon
– Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008) Nature Geoscience
Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa
– New, Hewitson, Stephenson,s Tsiga, Kruger, Manhique, Gomez, Coelho, Masisi, Kululanga, Mbambalala, Adesina, Saleh, Kanyanga, Adosi, Bulane, Fortunata, Mdoka and Lajoie (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research
Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases
– Solomon, Daniel, Sanford, Murphy, Plattner, Knutti and Friedlingstein (2010) PNAS
Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961–2003
– Aguilar, Peterson, Obando, Frutos, Retana, Solera, Soley, Garcıa, Araujo, Santos, Valle, Brunet, Aguilar, Alvarez, Bautista, Castanon, Herrera, Ruano, Sinay, Sanchez, Oviedo, Obed, Salgado, Vazquez, Baca, Gutierrez, Centella, Espinosa, Martınez, Olmedo, Espinoza, Nunez, Haylock, Benavides and Mayorga (2005) Journal of Geophysical Research
High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations
– Pagani, Liu, LaRiviere and Ravelo (2010) Nature Geoscience
Ice Age Terminations
– Cheng, Edwards, Broecker, Denton, Kong, Wang,Zhang and Wang (2009) Science
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100
– Breecker, Sharp and McFadden (2010) PNAS
Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection
– Johnson and Xie (2010) Nature Geoscience
Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552
– Saenger, Cohen, Oppo, Halley and Carilli (2009) Nature Geoscience
Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels
– Shaffer, Olsen and Pedersen (2009) Nature Geoscience
Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
– Archer, Eby, Brovkin, Ridgwell, Cao, Mikolajewicz, Caldeira, Matsumoto, Munhoven, Montenegro and Tokos (2009) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate
– Royer, Berner, Montanez, Tabor, Beerling (2004) GSA Today
Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry
– Goodwin, Williams, Ridgwell and Follows (2009) Nature Geoscience
Climate commitment in an uncertain world
– Armour and Roe (2011) Geophysical Research Letters
Changing structure of European precipitation: Longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls
– Zolina, Simmer, Gulev and Kollet (2010) Geophysical Research Letters
Lessons from Earth’s Past
– Kiehl (2011) Science
Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications
– Hansen, Nazarenko, Ruedy, Sato, Willis, Del Genio, Koch, Lacis, Lo, Menon, Novakov, Perlwitz, Russell, Schmidt, and, Tausnev (2005) Science
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
– Pall, Aina, Stone, Stott, Nozawa, Hilberts, Lohmann and Allen (2011) Nature
Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008
– Flanner, Shell, Barlage, Perovich and Tschudi (2011) Nature Geoscience
‘It’s not all the Sun’ and the Cosmic Ray delusion
Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum
– Lockwood (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance
Solar Influences on Climate
– Gray, Beer, Geller, Haigh, Lockwood, Matthes, Cubasch, Fleitmann, Harrison, Hood, Luterbacher, Meehl, Shindell, van Geel, and White (2010) Reviews of Geophysics
Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
– Alexander, Zhang, Peterson, Caesar, Gleason, Klein Tank, Haylock, Collins, Trewin, Rahimzadeh, Tagipour, Rupa Kumar, Revadekar, Griffiths, Vincent, Stephenson, Burn, Aguilar, Brunet, Taylor, New, Zhai, Rusticucci and Vazquez-Aguirre, (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research
Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections
– Alexander and Arblaster (2009) International Journal of Climatology
Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature
– Lockwood and Fröhlich (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale
– Lockwood and Fröhlich (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise
– Lockwood (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Global dimming and brightening: A review
– Wild (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research
Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
– Lockwood, Harrison, Woollings and Solanki (2010) Environmental Research Letters
Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia
– Klein Tank, Peterson, Quadir, Dorji, Zou, Tang, Santhosh, Joshi, Jaswal, Kolli, Sikder, Deshpande, Revadekar, Yeleuova, Vandasheva, Faleyeva, Gomboluudev, Budhathoki, Hussain, Afzaal, Chandrapala, Anvar, Amanmurad, Asanova, Jones, New and Spektorman (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research
Solar influence on Climate
– Gray, Beer, Geller, Haigh, Lockwood, Matthes, Cubasch, Fleitmann, Harrison, Hood, Luterbacher, Meehl, Shindell, van Geel and White (2010) Reviews of Geophysics
On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth
– Feulner and Rahmstorf (2010) Geophysical Research Letters
Cosmic Rays, Carbon Dioxide, and Climate
-Rahmstorf, Archer, Ebel, Eugster, Jouzel, Maraun, Neu, Schmidt, Severinghaus, Weaver and Zachos (2004) Eso, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (Not SCI listed, h/t Beth)
Comparison of Spectrally Resolved Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the Tropical Pacific between 1970 and 2003 Using IRIS, IMG, and AIRS
– Griggs and Harries (2007) Journal of Climate
How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?
– Lean and Rind (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
No climate paradox under the faint early Sun
– Rosing, Bird, Sleep and Bjerrum (2010) Nature
Solar trends and global warming
– Benestad and Schmidt (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research
For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?
– Abreu, Beer, Steinhilber, Tobias and Weiss (2008) Geophysical research letters
Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models
– Anderson, Knight, Ringer, Deser, Phillips, Yoon and Cherchi (2010) Climate Dynamics
How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006
– Lean and Rind (2008) Geophysical Research Letters
Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures
– Hegerl, Luterbacher, González-Rouco, Tett, Crowley and Xoplaki (2011) Nature Geoscience
A critical look at solar-climate relationships from long temperature series
– Legras, Mestre, Bard and Yiou (2010) Climate of the Past (Not on the SCI list)
Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997
– Harries, Brindley, Sagoo and Bantges (2001) Nature
An analysis of the dependence of clear-sky top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation on atmospheric temperature and water vapor
– Dessler, Yang, Lee, Solbrig, Zhang and Minschwaner (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research
Evolution and Trend of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Spectrum
– Huang and Ramaswamy (2009) Journal of Climate
Ecological response to climate change
Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species’ low-latitude range boundaries
– Franco, Hill, Kitschke, Collingham, Roy, Fox, Huntley and Tomas (2006) Global Change Biology
Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change
– Kiewan and Mudd (2012) Nature
Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming
– Rodolfo-Metalpa, Houlbrèque, Tambutté, Boisson, Baggini, Patti, Jeffree, Fine, Foggo, Gattuso and Hall-Spencer (2011) Nature Climate Change
Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change
– Bálint, Domisch, Engelhardt, Haase, Lehrian, Sauer, Theissinger, Pauls and Nowak (2011) Nature Climate Change
Soil carbon release enhanced by increased tropical forest litterfall
– Sayer, Heard, Grant, Marthews and Tanner (2011) Nature Climate Change
Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change
– McDonald-Madden, Runge, Possingham and Martin (2011) Nature Climate Change
Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire
– Mack, Bret-Harte, Hollingsworth, Jandt, Schuur, Shaver and Verbyla (2011) Nature
Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters
– Neuheimer, Thresher, Lyle and Semmens (2011) Nature Climate Change
Dynamics of the larch taiga–permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change
– Zhang, Yasunari and Ohta (2011) Environmental Research Letters
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations
– Soja, Tchebakova, French,Flannigan, Shugart, Stocks, Sukhinin,Parfenova, Chapin III and Stackhouse (2006) Global and Planetary Change
Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone
– MacDonald,Kremenetski and Beilman (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science
– Lee and Jetz (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society B – Really interesting
Priming depletes soil carbon and releases nitrogen in a scrub-oak ecosystem exposed to elevated CO2
– Langley, McKinley, Wolf, Hungate, Drake and Megonigal (2009) Soil Biology and Biochemistry
Feedbacks of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climate Change
– Field, Lobell, Peters and Chiariello (2007) Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Differences in Thermal Tolerance Among Sockeye Salmon Populations
– Eliason, Clark, Hague, Hanson, Gallagher, Jeffries, Gale, Patterson, Hinch and Farrell (2011) Science
Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
– Dawson, Jackson, House, Prentice and Mace (2011) Science
Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution
– Root , MacMynowski, Mastrandrea and Schneider (2005) PNAS
Vascular plant success in a warming Antarctic may be due to efficient nitrogen acquisition
– Hill, Farrar, Roberts, Farrell, Grant, Newsham, Hopkins, Bardgett and Jones (2011) Nature Climate Change.)
Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions
– Beaumont, Pitman, Perkins, Zimmermann, Yoccoz and Thuiller (2011) PNAS
The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds
– Carey (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Bergmann’s rule and climate change revisited: Disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population
– Teplitsky, Mills, Alho, Yarrall and Merilä (2008) PNAS
Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD
– Williams, Jackson and Kutzbach (2007) PNAS
Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem
– Cleland, Chiariello, Loarie, Mooney and Field (2006) PNAS
Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon
– Oberle and Schaal (2011) PNAS – further evidence of a point I’m continually harping on about; resilience is increased by diversity, in this case, genetic diversity and connectivity (ie. ecological corridors)
Global Warming: Fly Populations Are Responding Rapidly to Climate Change
-Heerwaarden and Hoffmann (2006) Current Biology
Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude
– Deutsch, Tewksbury, Huey, Sheldon, Ghalambor, Haak and Martin (2008) PNAS
Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats
– Both, Van Turnhout, Bijlsma, Siepel, Van Strien and Foppen (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
– Diamond, Frame, Martin and Buckley (2011) Ecology
Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau’s woods are driven by climate change
– Willis, Ruhfel, Primack, Miller-Rushing and Davis (2008) PNAS
Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-alpine ecosystems
– Benito, Lorite and Peñas (2011) Climatic Change
Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study
– Buddemeier, Lane and Martinich (2011) Climatic Change
Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China
– Wang, Bai, Li and Hu (2010) Climatic Change
Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios
– Townsend Peterson, Ortega-Huerta, Bartley, Sánchez-Cordero, Soberón, Buddemeier and Stockwell (2002) Nature
Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management
– Folke, Carpenter, Walker, Scheffer, Elmqvist, Gunderson and Holling (2004) Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
The future of tropical forests
– Wright (2010) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians
– Wake and Vredenburg (2008) PNAS
A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record
– Mayhew, Jenkins and Benton (2008)Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila)
– Horikawa, Tsuyama, Matsui, Kominami and Tanaka (2009) Landscape Ecology (Not SCI listed)
Photosynthetic performance of lichen transplants as early indicator of climatic stress along an altitudinal gradient in the arid Mediterranean area
– Arg. Pirintsos,Paoli, Loppi and Kotzabasis (2011) Climatic Change
Climate change and seal survival: evidence for environmentally mediated changes in elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, pup survival
– McMahon and Burton (2005) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Immune defence under extreme ambient temperature
– Seppälä and Jokela (2010) Biology Letters (Not SCI listed)
Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker’s Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)
– Damschen, Harrison and Grace (2010) Ecology
Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections
– La Sorte and Jetz (2010) Journal of Experimental Biology
Consequences of changing biodiversity
– Chapin III, Zavaleta, Eviner, Naylor, Vitousek, Reynolds, Hooper, Lavorel, Sala, Hobbie, Mack and Díaz (2000) Nature
Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands
– Turetsky, Kane, Harden, Ottmar, Manies, Hoy and Kasischke (2010) Nature Geoscience
Wetland conservation and sustainable use under global change: a tropical Australian case study using magpie geese
– Traill, Bradshaw, Delean and Brook (2010) Ecography
Increased cuticular carbon sequestration and lignin oxidation in response to soil warming
– Feng, Simpson, Wilson, Williams and Simpson (2008) Nature Geoscience
Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores
– Post, Pedersen, Wilmers and Forchhammer (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths
– Altermatt (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record
– Bond-Lamberty and Thomson (2010) Nature
Impacts of climate change and environmental factors on reproduction and development in wildlife
– Milligan, Holt and Lloyd (2009)Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea
– Cantin, Cohen, Karnauskas, Tarrant and McCorkle (2010) Nature
Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough
– Devictor, Julliard, Couvet and Jiguet (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Global phytoplankton decline over the past century
– Cantin, Cohen, Karnauskas, Tarrant and McCorkle (2010) Science
Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change
– Jones, Lowe, Liddicoat and Betts (2009) Nature Geoscience
Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe
– Thuiller, Lavergne, Roquet, Boulangeat, Lafourcade and Araujo (2001) Nature
Mechanisms driving change: altered species interactions and ecosystem function through global warming
– Traill, Lim, Sodhi and Bradshaw (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology
Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise
– Blum and Roberts (2009) Nature Geoscience
Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?
– Mitchell, Kearney and Nelson (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments
– Thackeray, Sparks, Frederiksen, Burthe, Bacon, Bell, Botham, Brereton, Bright, Carvalho, Clutton-Brock, Dawson, Edwards, Elliott, Harrington, Johns, Jones, Jones, Leech, Roy, Scott, Smith, Smithers, Winfield and Wanless (2010) Global Change Biology
Physiology and Global Climate Change
– Feder (2010) Annual Review of Physiology
A clear human footprint in the coral reefs of the Caribbean
– Mora (2008)Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures
– Yamano, Sugihara, and Nomura (2011) Geophysical Research Letters
Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world
– Traill, Brook, Frankham and Bradshaw (2010) Biological Conservation
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
– Rosenzweig, Karoly, Vicarelli, Neofotis, Wu, Casassa, Menzel, Root, Estrella, Seguin, Tryjanowski, Liu, Rawlins and Imeson (2008) Nature
Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod
– Lindegren, Möllmann, Nielsen, Brander, MacKenzie and Stenseth (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Future habitat loss and the conservation of plant biodiversity
– Giam, Bradshaw, Tan and Sodhi (2010) Biological Conservation
Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology
– Dose and Menzel (2004) Global Change Biology
Climate change correlates with rapid delays and advancements in reproductive timing in an amphibian community
– Todd, Scott, Pechmann and Gibbons (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem
– Shackell, Frank, Fisher, Petrie and Leggett (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
The 2010 Amazon Drought
– Lewis, Brando, Phillips, van der Heijden, Nepstad (2011) Science
Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages
– La Sorte, Lee, Wilman and Jetz (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change
– Anderson, Akcakaya, Araujo, Fordham, Martinez-Meyer, Thuiller and Brook (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes
– Amano, Smithers, Sparks and Sutherland (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont
– Beckage, Osborne, Gavin, Pucko, Siccama and Perkins (2007) PNAS
Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species
– Ng and Gray (2011) Global Change Biology
Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought
– Carnicera, Colla, Ninyerola, Pons, Sánchez and Peñuelas (2011) PNAS
Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming
– La Sorte and Jetz (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
The velocity of climate change
– Loarie, Duffy, Hamilton, Asner, Field and Ackerly (2009) Nature
Current State & Trends
– Mace, Masundire, Baillie, Ricketts, Brooks, Hoffmann, Stuart, Balmford, Purvis, Reyers, Wang, Revenga, Kennedy, Naeem, Alkemade, Allnutt, Bakarr, Bond, Chanson, Cox, Fonseca, Hilton-Taylor, Loucks, Rodrigues, Sechrest, Stattersfield, van Rensburg, Whiteman, Abell, Cokeliss, Lamoreux, Pereira, Thonell and Williams (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Volume 1
Regional warming changes fish species richness in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean
– Hofstede, Hiddink and Rijnsdorp (2010) Marine Ecology – Progress Series
Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes
– Welbergen, Klose, Markus and Eby(2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models
– Durner, Douglas, Nielson, Amstrup, McDonald, Stirling, Mauritzen, Born, Wiig, DeWeaver, Serreze, Belikov, Holland, Maslanik, Aars, Bailey and Derocher (2009) Ecological Monographs
Why tropical island endemics are acutely susceptible to global change
– Fordham and Brook (2010) Biodiversity and Conservation
Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change
– Gonzalez, Neilson, Lenihan and Drapek (2010) Global Ecology and Biogeography
Growth, carbon-isotope discrimination, and drought-associated mortality across a Pinus ponderosa elevational transect
– McDowell, Allen and Marshall (2009) Global Change Biology
Quantifying the negative feedback of vegetation to greenhouse warming: A modeling approach
– Bounoua, Hall, Sellers, Kumar, Collatz, Tucker and Imhoff (2010) Geophysical Research Letters
CO2 is ‘plant food’
(strictly speaking it’s still ecology, but I feel it warrants it’s own heading)
Carbon balance of Arctic tundra under increased snow cover mediated by a plant pathogen
– Olofsson, Ericson, Torp, Stark and Baxter (2011) Nature Climate Change
Effects of elevated CO2 on grain yield and quality of wheat: results from a 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment.
– Högy, Wieser, Köhler, Schwadorf, Breuer, Franzaring, Muntifering and Fangmeier (2009) Plant Biology
Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2
– Silva, Anand and Leithead (2010) PLoS ONE
What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2
– Ainsworth and Long (2005) New Phytologist
Elevated CO2 reduces the nitrogen concentration of plant tissues
– Cotrufo, Ineson and Scott (1998) Global Change Biology
Plant nutrient acquisition and utilisation in a high carbon dioxide world
– Cavagnaro, Gleadow and Miller (2011) Functional Plant Biology
Effects of Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) on nitrogen mobilization and decomposition of elevated-CO2 Charlock mustard litter
– Marhan, Rempt, Högy, Fangmeier and Kandeler (2010) Journal of plant nutrition and soil science
Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Inhibits Nitrate Assimilation in Wheat and Arabidopsis
– Bloom, Burger, Asensio and Cousins (2010) Science
Physical response to climate change
Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply
– Jung, Reichstein, Ciais, Seneviratne, Sheffield, Goulden, Bonan, Cescatti, Chen, de Jeu, JohannesDolman,r Eugster, Gerten, Gianelle, Gobron, Heinke, Kimball, Law, Montagnani, Mu, Mueller, Oleson, Papale, Richardson, Roupsard, Running, Tomelleri, Viovy, Weber, Williams, Wood, Zaehle and Zhang (2010) Nature
Evidence for a weakening of tropical surface wind extremes in response to atmospheric warming
Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in European storminess since 1871
– Donat, Renggl, Wild, Alexander, Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2011) Geophysical Research Letters
An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change
– Muller and O’Gorman (2011) Nature Climate Change
Revolatilization of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic induced by climate change
– Ma, Hung, Tian and Kallenborn (2011) Nature Climate Change
Rapid change in semi-diurnal tides in the North Atlantic since 1980
– Müller (2011) Geophysical Research Letters
Are we now living in the Anthropocene?
– Zalasiewicz, Williams, Smith, Barry, Coe, Bown, Brenchley, Cantrill, Gale, Gibbard, Gregory, Hounslow, Kerr, Pearson, Knox, Powell, Waters, Marshall, Oates, Rawson, and Stone (2008) GSA Today
The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives
– Steffen, Grinevald, Crutzen and McNeill (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions
– Barnett, Adam and Lettenmaier (2005) Nature
Tropical Glacier and Ice Core Evidence of Climate Change on Annual to Millennial Time Scales
– Thompson, Mosley-Thompson, Davis, Lin, Henderson and Mashiotta (2003) Climatic Change
Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades
– Liu and Chen (2000) International Journal of Climatology
Alarming retreat of Parbati glacier, Beas basin, Himachal Pradesh
– Kulkarni (2005)Current science
Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model
– Lawrence and Chase (2010) International Journal of Climatology – Really interesting
Hydroclimatological impact of century-long drainage in midwestern United States: CCSM sensitivity experiments
– Kumar, Merwade, Lee, Zhao and Song (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research – Really interesting
Linking primary production, climate and land use along an urban–wildland transect: a satellite view
– Hu, Jia and Guo (2009) Environmental Research Letters
Paleoclimatic warming increased carbon dioxide concentrations
– Lemoine (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research – Deniers like to say that warming increases CO2, not the other way around, but the truth is, it’s a positive feedback
Recent northern hemisphere snow extent: A comparison of data derived from visible and microwave satellite sensors
– Armstrong and Brodzik (2001) Geophysical Research letters
Northern Hemisphere Ice-Sheet Influences on Global Climate Change
– Clark, Alley and Pollard (1999) Science
Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
– Davis, Li, McConnell, Frey and Hanna (2005) Science
Variability and trends in the annual snow-cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972–2000
– Dye (2002) Hydrological Processes
Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions
– Hinzman, Bettez, Bolton, Chapin, Dyurgerov, Fastie, Griffith, Hollister, Hope, Huntington, Jensen, Jia, Jorgenson, Kane, Klein, Kofinas, Lynch, Lloyd, McGuire, Nelson, Oechel, Osterkamp, Racine, Romanovsky, Stone, Stow, Sturm, Tweedie, Vourlitis, Walker, Walker, Webber, Welker, Winker and Yoshikawa (2005) Climatic Change
Warming permafrost in European mountains
– Harris, Mühll, Isaksen, Haeberli, Sollid, King, Holmlund, Dramis, Guglielmin and Palacios (2003) Global and Planetary Change
Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958–2003
– Hanna, Huybrechts, Janssens, Cappelen, Steffen and Stephens (2005) Journal of Geophysical Research
Three deep Alpine-permafrost boreholes in Svalbard and Scandinavia
– Isaksen, Holmlund, Sollid and Harris (2001) Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
Freshening of the Ross Sea During the Late 20th Century
– Jacobs, Giulivi and Mele (2002) Science
Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland
– Johannessen, Khvorostovsky, Miles and Bobylev (2005) Science
Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario
– Deo, Ganer and Nair (2011) Natural Hazards
Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences–potential future evolutions
– Stoffel, Bollschweiler and Beniston (2011) Climatic Change
Statistical assessment of changes in climate extremes over Greece (1955–2002)
– Kioutsioukis, Melas and Zerefos (2009) International Journal of Climatology
Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming
– Bekryaev, Polyakov and Vladimir A. Alexeev (2010) Journal of Climate
The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature
– Arkin, Smith, Sapiano and Janowiak (2010) Environmental Research Letters
Variability in Springtime Thaw in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Monitoring a Major Control on the Biospheric Assimilation of Atmospheric CO2 with Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing
– McDonald, Kimball, Njoku, Zimmermann and Zhao (2004) Earth Interactions
Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity
– Vorosmarty, McIntyre, Gessner, Dudgeon, Prusevich, Green, Glidden, Bunn, Sullivan, Liermann and Davies (2010) Nature
Pan evaporation and wind run decline in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (1974–2005): implications for vegetation responses to climate change
– Hoffman, Cramer, Gillson and Wallace (2011) Climatic Change
Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall
– Xie, Deser, Vecchi, Ma, Teng and Wittenberg (2010) Journal of Climate
Projected Future Seasonal Changes in Tropical Summer Climate
– Sobel and Camargo (2011)Journal of Climate
Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
– Findell, Pitman, England and Pegion (2009) Journal of Climate
Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity
– Goelzer, Huybrechts, Loutre, Goosse, Fichefet and Mouchet (2010) Climate Dynamics
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe
– Hirschi, Seneviratne, Alexandrov, Boberg, Boroneant, Christensen, Formayer, Orlowsky and Stepanek (2010) Nature Geoscience
Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America
– Seager and Vecchi (2010) PNAS
The Changing Character of Precipitation
– Trenberth, Dai, Rasmussen and Parsons (2003) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport
– Sohn and Park (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research
Winter intensification of the moist branch of the circulation in simulations of 21st century climate
– Laliberté and Pauluis (2010) Geophysical Research letters
Physical mechanism of long-term drying trend over tropical North Africa
– Kawase, Abe, Yamada, Takemura, Yokohata and Nozawa (2010) Geophysical Research letters
Weakening of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue over the past six decades
– Tokinaga and Xie (2011) Nature Geoscience
A Comparison of Australian Open Water Body Evaporation Trends for Current and Future Climates Estimated from Class A Evaporation Pans and General Circulation Models
– Johnson and Sharma (2010) Journal of Hydrometeorology
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño
– Collins, An, Cai, Ganachaud, Guilyardi, Jin, Jochum, Lengaigne, Power, Timmermann, Vecchi and Wittenberg (2010) Nature Geoscience
Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming
– Romps (2011) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends
– Cordero, Kessomkiat, Abatzoglou and Mauget (2011) Climatic Change
The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods
– Xu, Grumbine, Shrestha, Eriksson, Yang, Wang and Wilkes (2009) Conservation Biology
Moisture dynamics in walls: response to micro-environment and climate change
– Hall, Hamilton, Hoff, Viles and Eklund (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Climate change and groundwater: a short review
– Dragoni and Sukhija (2008) Geological Society
Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest
– MacDonald (2010) PNAS
The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels
– Andrews and Piers M Forster (2010) Environmental Research Letters
Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation
– McKenzie, Aucamp, Bais, Björn, Ilyas and Madronich (2011) Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences
Changes in global‐mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon
– Frieler, Meinshausen, Schneider von Deimling, Andrews and Forster (2011) Geophysical Research Letters
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
– Solomon, Plattner, Knutti and Friedlingstein (2009) PNAS
Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations
– Zickfeld, Montenegro, Archer, Meissner and Weaver (2009) Journal of Climate
Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean
– Abram, Gagan, Cole, Hantoro and Mudelsee (2008) Nature Geoscience
Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux
– Hegglin and Shepherd (2009) Nature Geoscience
Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean
– Di Lorenzo, Cobb, Furtado, Schneider, Anderson, Bracco, Alexander and Vimont (2010) Nature Geoscience
Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming
– Zahn and von Storch (2010) Nature
Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes
– Lenderink and Meijgaard (2008) Nature Geoscience
Attribution of polar warming to human influence
– Gillett, Stone, Stott, Nozawa, Karpechko, Hegerl, Wehner and Jones (2008) Nature Geoscience
The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change
– Böning, Dispert, Visbeck, Rintoul and Schwarzkopf (2008) Nature Geoscience
Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean
– Conroy, Restrepo, Overpeck, Steinitz-Kannan, Cole, Bush and Colinvaux (2009) Nature Geoscience
Changes in Precipitation Extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a Warming Climate
– Chu, Chen and Schroeder (2010) Journal of Climate
El Nino in a changing climate
– Yeh, Kug, Dewitte, Kwon, Kirtman and Jin (2009) Nature
A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes
– Hanson, Nicholls, Ranger, Hallegatte, Corfee-Morlot, Herweijer, Chateau (2011) Climatic Change
Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature
– Lacis, Schmidt, Rind and Ruedy (2010) Science
Stratigraphy of the Anthropocene
– Zalasiewicz1, Williams, Fortey, Smith, Barry, Coe, Bown, Rawson, Gale, Gibbard, Gregory, Hounslow, Kerr, Pearson, Knox, Powell, Waters, Marshall, Oates and Stone (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
– Rockström, Steffen, Noone, Persson, Chapin III, Lambin, Lenton, Scheffer, Folke, Schellnhuber, Nykvist, De Wit, Hughes, van der Leeuw, Rodhe, Sörlin, Snyder, Costanza, Svedin, Falkenmark, Karlberg, Corell, Fabry, Hansen, Walker, Liverman, Richardson, Crutzen and Foley (2009) Ecology and Society
Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice
– Liu and Curry (2010) PNAS
Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions
– Gillett, Arora, Zickfeld, Marshall and Merryfield (2011) Nature Geoscience
Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate
-Seidel, Fu, Randel and Reichler (2008) Nature Geoscience
Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models
– Woth, Weisse and von Storch (2006) Ocean Dynamics
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
– Min, Zhang, Zwiers and Hegerl (2011) Nature
Climate Change, Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, and Rising Sea Level in coastal wetlands
– Michener, Blood, Bildstein, Brinson and Gardner (1997) Ecological Applications (oldest article in the list)
A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa
– Williams and Funk (2011) Climate Dynamics
‘Consensus’
Explained best by Dr. Paul Nurse;
Consensus can be used like a dirty word. Consensus is actually the position of the experts at the time and if it’s working well – it doesn’t always work well – but if it’s working well, they evaluate the evidence. You make your reputation in science by actually overturning that, so there’s a lot of pressure to do it. But if over the years the consensus doesn’t move you have to wonder is the argument, is the evidence against the consensus good enough.
Expert credibility in climate change
– Anderegga, Prallb, Harold and Schneider (2010) PNAS
Moving beyond scientific agreement: An Editorial comment on “Climate Change: a profile of US climate scientists’ perspectives”
– Anderegg (2010) Climatic Change
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system
– Kriegler, Hallc, Held, Dawson and Schellnhuber (2009) PNAS
On the Strength of Models etc.
Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations
– Kharin, Zwiers, Zhang and Hegerl (2007) Journal of Climate
Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium
– Li, Xie, Cook, Huang, D’Arrigo, Liu, Ma and Zheng (2011) Nature Climate Change
20th century climate change in the tropical Andes: Observations and model results
– Vuille, Mathias (2003) Climatic Change
Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species
– Zimmermann, Yoccoz, Edwards Jr, Meier, Thuiller, Guisan, Schmatz and Pearman (2009) PNAS (.NEW.)
On the Accuracy of Deriving Climate Feedback Parameters from Correlations between Surface Temperature and Outgoing Radiation
– Murphy and Forster (2010) Journal of Climate
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
– Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (2007) Science
When could global warming reach 4°C?
– Betts, Collins, Hemming, Jones, Lowe and Sanderson (2011)Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions
– Jackson, Betancourt, Booth and Gray (2009) PNAS
Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios
– Tomassini, Knutti, Plattner, van Vuuren, Stocker, Howarth and Borsuk (2010) Climatic Change
Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models
– Boberg, Berg, Thejll, Gutowski and Christensen (2010) Climate Dynamics
How Much Do Different Land Models Matter for Climate Simulation? Part II: A Decomposed View of the Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength
– Wei, Paul A. Dirmeyer, and Zhichang Guo (2010) Journal of Climate
Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment
– Fowler, Cooley, Sain and Thurston (2010) Extremes (Not SCI Listed)
Do Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover?
– Winton (2011) Journal of Climate
Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable?
– Stephens and Hu (2010) Environmental Research Letters
Mechanisms of Climate Change in the Semiarid African Sahel: The Local View
– Giannini (2010)Journal of Climate
Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content
– AchutaRao, Ishii, Santer, Gleckler, Taylor, Barnett, Pierce, Stouffer and Wigley (2007) PNAS
Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles
– Knutti, Stocker, Joos and Plattner (2002) Nature
Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants
– Levy II, Schwarzkopf, Horowitz, Ramaswamy and Findell (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research
Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature
– Knutti, Meehl, Allen and Stainforth (2006) Journal of Climate
Optimal detection and attribution of climate change: sensitivity of results to climate model differences
– Hegerl, Stott, Allen, Mitchell, Tett and Cubasch (2000) Climate Dynamics
The contribution of timescales to the temperature response of climate models
– Jarvis and Li (2011) Climate Dynamics
Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations
– Boé, Hall and Qu (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
The Effects of Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations in a Zonally Averaged Ocean Model
– Knutti and Stocker (2000) Journal of Physical Oceanography
Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases
– Stainforth, Aina, Christensen, Collins, Faull, Frame, Kettleborough, Knight, Martin, Murphy, Piani, Sexton, Smith, Spicer, Thorpe and Allen (2005) Nature
We are adding CO2 into the atmosphere
Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions
– Raupach, Marland, Ciais, Le Quéré, Canadell, Klepper and Field (2007) PNAS
The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago
– Ruddiman (2003) Climatic Change (.NEW.) – Really interesting
Chemical signatures of the Anthropocene in the Clyde estuary, UK: sediment-hosted Pb, 207/206Pb, total petroleum hydrocarbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbon and polychlorinated biphenyl pollution records
– Vane, Chenery, Harrison, Kim, Moss-Hayes and Jones (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes
– Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Update on CO2 emissions
– Friedlingstein, Houghton, Marland, Hackler, Boden, Conway, Canadell, Raupach, Ciais and Le Quéré (2010) Nature Geoscience (Correspondence)
Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
– Le Quéré, Raupach, Canadell, Marland et al. (full contributors list included following the article) (2009) Nature Geoscience
Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia
– Marlon, Bartlein, Carcaillet, Gavin, Harrison, Higuera, Joos, Power and Prentice (2008) Nature Geoscience
Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide
– Friedlingstein and Solomon (2005) PNAS
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
– Allen, Frame, Huntingford, Jones, Lowe, Meinshausen and Meinshausen (2009) Nature
Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
– Gregory, Jones, Cadule and Friedlingstein (2009) Journal of Climate
Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate–Carbon Cycle Models
– Plattner, Knutti, Joos, Stocker, von Bloh, Brovkin, Cameron, Driesschaert, Dutkiewicz, Eby, Edwards, Fichefet, Hargreaves, Jones, Loutre, Matthews, Mouchet, Müller, Nawrath, Price, Sokolov, Strassmann, and Weaver (2008) Journal of Climate
Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions
– Matthews and Caldeira (2008) Geophysical Research Letters
Economics, Resources, Policies and climate change (in SCI listed journals)
2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility
– Büntgen, Tegel, Nicolussi, McCormick, Frank, Trouet, Kaplan, Herzig, Heussner, Wanner, Luterbacher and Esper (2011) Science
Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate
– Hsiang, Meng and Cane (2011) Nature
Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change
– Montzka, Dlugokencky and Butler (2011) Nature
Societal responses to the Anthropocene
– Tickell (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Anticipating ocean acidification’s economic consequences for commercial fisheries
– Cooley and Doney (2009) Environmental Research Letters
Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations
– Roeckner, Giorgetta, Crueger, Esch and Pongratz (2011) Climatic Change
Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience
– Spence, Poortinga, Butler and Pidgeon (2011) Nature Climate Change
Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle-emission standards
– Shindell, Faluvegi, Walsh, Anenberg, Van Dingenen, Muller, Austin, Koch and Milly (2011) Nature Climate Change
Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras
– McSweeney and Coomes (2011) PNAS – a great positive paper
Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe
– Ciscar, Iglesias, Feyen, Szabó, Van Regemorter, Amelunge, Nicholls, Watkiss, Christensen, Dankers, Luis Garrote, Goodess, Hunt, Moreno, Richards and Soria (2011) PNAS
Economic Growth, Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss: Distributive Justice for the Global North and South
– Rosales (2008) Conservation Biology
Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation
– Kopp and Mauzerall (2010) PNAS
Uncertainty, rationality and cooperation in the context of climate change
– Raihani and Aitken (2011) Climatic Change
Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality
– Fiore, West, Horowitz, Naik, and Schwarzkopf (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research
Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations
– Ford, Pearce, Prno, Duerden, Berrang Ford, Smith and Beaumier (2011) Climatic Change
How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?
– Lowe, Huntingford, Raper, Jones, Liddicoat and Gohar (2009) Environmental Research Letters
Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: household energy
– Wilkinson, Smith, Davies, Adair, Armstrong, Barrett, Bruce, Haines, Hamilton, Oreszczyn, Ridley, Tonne and Chalabi (2009) The Lancet
How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?
– Washington, Knutti, Meehl, Teng, Tebaldi, Lawrence, Buja, and Strand (2009) Geophysical Research Letters
Emergent dynamics of the climate–economy system in the Anthropocene
– Kellie-Smith and Cox (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A – Really interesting
Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change
– Lee and Jetz (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Influence of feedback on the stochastic evolution of simple climate systems
– Mahadevan and Deutch (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required
– Vaughan, Lenton and Shepherd (2009) Climatic Change
Parallel Pursuit of Near-Term and Long-Term Climate Mitigation
– Jackson (2009) Science
Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
– Davis, Caldeira and Matthews (2010) Science
Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
– Pacala and Socolow (2004) Science
On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity
– Annan and Hargreaves (2011) Climatic Change
Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model
– Frolicher and Joos (2010) Climate Dynamics
Abrupt Climate Change
– Alley, Marotzke, Nordhaus, Overpeck, Peteet, Pielke Jr., Pierrehumbert, Rhines, Stocker, Talley, and Wallace (2003) Science
Earth System Science for Global Sustainability: Grand Challenges
– Reid, Chen, Goldfarb, Hackmann, Lee, Mokhele, Ostrom, Raivio, Rockström, Schellnhuber and Whyte (2010) Science
Linking Policy on Climate and Food
– Godfray, Pretty, Thomas, Warham and Beddington (2011) Science
Geoengineering
Regional climate response to solar-radiation management
– Ricke, Morgan and Allen (2010) Nature Geoscience
Ocean Acidification
Near-future levels of ocean acidification reduce fertilization success in a sea urchin
– Havenhand, Buttler, Thorndyke and Williamson (2008) Current Biology
Sensitivity of coccolithophores to carbonate chemistry and ocean acidification
– Beaufort, Probert, de Garidel-Thoron, Bendif, Ruiz-Pino, Metzl, Goyet, Buchet, Coupel, Grelaud, Rost, Rickaby and de Vargas (2011) Nature
Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations
– Fabricius, Langdon, Uthicke, Humphrey, Noonan, De’ath, Okazaki, Muehllehner, Glas and Lough (2011) Nature Climate Change
A nonlinear calcification response to CO2-induced ocean acidification by the coral Oculina arbuscula
– Ries, Cohen and McCorkle (2010) Coral Reefs
New observations of CO2-induced acidification in the northern Adriatic Sea over the last quarter century
– Luchetta, Cantoni and Catalano (2010) Chemistry and Ecology
Early Larval Development of the Sydney Rock Oyster Saccostrea glomerata Under Near-Future Predictions of CO2-Driven Ocean Acidification
– Watson, Southgate, Tyler and Peck (2009) Journal of Shellfish Research
The societal challenge of ocean acidification
– Turley, Eby, Ridgwell, Schmidt, Findlay, Brownlee, Riebesell, Fabry, Feely and Gattuso (2010) Marine Pollution Bulletin
Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem
– Doney, Fabry, Feely and Kleypas (2009) Annual Review of Marine Science
Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes
– Fabry, Seibel, Feely and Orr (2008) Journal of Marine Science
Anthropogenic modification of the oceans
– Tyrrell (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Future ocean increasingly transparent to low-frequency sound owing to carbon dioxide emissions
– Ilyina, Zeebe and Brewer (2010) Nature Geoscience
Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
– Hoegh-Guldberg, Mumby, Hooten, Steneck, Greenfield, Gomez, Harvell, Sale, Edwards, Caldeira, Knowlton, Eakin, Iglesias-Prieto, Muthiga, Bradbury, Dubi and Hatziolos (2007) Science
Ocean acidification may increase calcification rates, but at a cost
– Wood, Spicer and Widdicombe (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Paleo-perspectives on ocean acidification
– Pelejero, Calvo and Hoegh-Guldberg (2010) Trends in Ecology and Evolution
Ocean Warming, Sea Level and Glacial Melt
Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD
– Grinsted, Moore and Jevrejeva (2010) Climate Dynamics
Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise
– Jacob, Wahr, Pfeffer and Sean Swenson (2012) Nature
Tracing the upper ocean’s “missing heat”
The role of ocean thermal expansion in Last Interglacial sea level rise
Abrupt warming of the Red Sea
Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011
The Greenland Sea Jet: A mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export through Fram Strait
Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions
Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
– Gardner, Moholdt, Wouters, Wolken, Burgess, Sharp, Cogley, Braun and Labine (2011) Nature
Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic
– Stephenson, Smith and Agnew (2011) Nature Climate Change
A 2000 year record of Atlantic Water temperature variability from the Malangen Fjord, northeastern North Atlantic
– Hald, Salomonsen, Husum and Wilson (2011) The Holocene
Outlet glacier and margin elevation changes: Near-coastal thinning of the Greenland ice sheet
Elevation changes of ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level
– Arendt, Echelmeyer, Harrison, Lingle and Valentine (2002) Science
A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic
– Comiso (2002) Geophysical Research letters
Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century
– Cook, Fox, Vaughan and Ferrigno (2005) Science
Kilimanjaro Glaciers: Recent areal extent from satellite data and new interpretation of observed 20th century retreat rates
– Cullen, Mölg, Kaser, Hussein, Steffen and Hardy (2006) Geophysical Research letters
Ice Core Evidence for Antarctic Sea Ice Decline Since the 1950s
– Curran, van Ommen, Morgan, Phillips and Palmer (2003) Science
Role of small ice shelves in sea-level rise
– Dupont and Alley (2006) Geophysical Research letters
Glaciers of the outer and inner tropics: A different behaviour but a common response to climatic forcing
Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16°S
Rapid retreat and acceleration of Helheim Glacier, east Greenland
Satellite Evidence for an Arctic Sea Ice Cover in Transformation
– Johannessen, Shalina and Miles (1999) Science
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability
– Johannessen, Bengtsson, Miles, Kuzmina, Semenov, Alekseev, Nagurnyi, Zakharov, Bobylev, Pettersson, Hasselmann and Cattle (2004) Tellus A
Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland’s Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier
– Joughin, Abdalati and Fahnestock (2004) Nature
Spatial and temporal melt variability at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, and its effect on ice dynamics
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change
– Gregory and Huybrechts (2006) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Twentieth century sea level: An enigma
– Munk
Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise
– Overpeck, Otto-Bliesner, Miller, Muhs, Alley and Kiehl (2006) Science
Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise
– Domingues, Church, White, Gleckler, Wijffels, Barker and Dunn (2008) Nature
Maritime boundaries in a rising sea
– Houghton, Vafeidis, Neumann and Proelss (2010) Nature Geoscience
Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise
– Pfeffer, Harper and O’Neel (2008) Science
Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss
– Vavrus, Holland and Bailey (2011) Climate Dynamics
Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height
– Trenhaile (2011) Climatic Change
Revisiting Greenland ice sheet mass loss observed by GRACE
– Schrama and Wouters (2011) Journal of Geophysical Research (h/t ‘Warm’)
Greenland ice sheet mass balance: distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003–07 versus 1992–2002
– Zwally, Li, Brenner, Beckley, Cornejo, DiMarzio, Giovinetto, Neumann, Robbins, Saba, Yi, and Wang (2011) Journal of Glaciology (h/t ‘Warm’)
The Role of Natural Versus Forced Change in Future Rapid Summer Arctic Ice Loss
– Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, and Bailey (2008) Geophysical Monograph
Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones
– Nicholls and Cazenave (2010) Science
Global Decadal Upper-Ocean Heat Content as Viewed in Nine Analyses
– Carton and Santorelli (2008) Journal of Climate
Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future
– Church, White, Aarup, Wilson, Woodworth, Domingues, Hunter, Lambeck (2008) Sustainability Science (Not SCI listed)
Robust warming of the global upper ocean
– Lyman, Good, Gouretski, Ishii, Johnson, Palmer, Smith and Willis (2010) Nature
Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate
– Han, Meehl, Rajagopalan, Fasullo, Hu, Lin, Large, Wang, Quan, Trenary, Wallcraft, Shinoda and Yeager (2010) Nature Geoscience
Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers
– Rignot, Koppes and Velicogna (2010) Nature Geoscience
How much is the western Mediterranean really warming and salting?
– Vargas-Yáñez, Zunino, Benali, Delpy, Pastre, Moya, García-Martínez and Tel (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research
How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?
– Meehl, Washington, Collins, Arblaster, Hu, Buja, Strand and Teng (2005) Science
Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World’s Oceans
– Barnett, Pierce and Schnur (2001) Science
Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements
– Chen, Wilson, Blankenship and Tapley (2009) Nature Geoscience
Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes
– Alley, Clark, Huybrechts and Joughin (2005) Science
A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise
– Church and White (2006) Geophysical Research Letters
Increased flow speed on a large East Antarctic outlet glacier caused by subglacial floods
– Stearns, Smith and Hamilton (2008) Nature Geoscience
The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis
– Dasgupta, Laplante, Meisner, Wheeler and Yan (2009) Climatic Change
Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States
– Yin, Schlesinger and Stouffer (2009) Nature Geoscience
Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica
– Velicogna and Wahr (2006) Science
Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage
– Sundal, Shepherd, Nienow, Hanna, Palmer and Huybrechts (2011) Nature
Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets
– Shepherd and Wingham (2007) Science
Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water
– Spielhagen, Werner, Sørensen, Zamelczyk, Kandiano, Budeus, Husum, Marchitto, Hald (2011) Science
Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise
– Radic and Hock (2011) Nature Geoscience
Human Health, food and water security and AGW
Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands
– Hay, Cox, Rogers, Randolph, Stern, Shanks, Myers and Snow (2002) Nature
Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials
– Lobell, Bänziger, Magorokosho and Vivek (2011) Nature Climate Change (.NEW.)
Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops
– Craufurd and Wheeler (2009) Journal of Experimental Biology (.NEW.)
Climate change and human health: present and future risks
– McMichael, Woodruff and Hales (2006) The Lancet
Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland
– Pascual, Cazelles, Bouma, Chaves and Koelle (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America
– Ziska, Knowlton, Rogers, Dalan, Tierney, Elder, Filley, Shropshire, Ford, Hedberg, Fleetwood, Hovanky, Kavanaugh, Fulford, Vrtis, Patz, Portnoy, Coates, Bielory and Frenz (2011) PNAS
Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning
– Tschakert, Sagoe, Ofori-Darko and Codjoe (2010) Climatic Change
Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates
– Al-Qinna, Hammouri, Obeidat and Ahmad (2010) Climatic Change
Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State
– Rosenberg, Keys, Booth, Hartley, Burkey, Steinemann and Lettenmaier (2010) Climatic Change
Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission
– Costello, Abbas, Allen, Ball, Bell, Bellamy, Friel, Groce, Johnson, Kett, Lee, Levy, Maslin, McCoy, McGuire, Montgomery, Napier, Pagel, Patel, Puppim de Oliveira, Redclift, Rees, Rogger, Scott, Stephenson, Twigg, Wolff and Patterson (2009) The Lancet
Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise
– Bosello, Roson and Tol (2007) Environmental & Resource Economics (Not SCI listed)
Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa
– Tonnang, Kangalawe and Yanda (2010) Malaria Journal
Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia
– Demeke, Keil and Zeller (2011) Climatic Change (Really interesting study)
Impacts of biofuels on climate change, water use, and land use
– Delucchi (2010) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Impacts of climate change on historical locust outbreaks in China
– Yu, Shen and Liu (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research
Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009
– Olmsteada and Rhode (2011) PNAS
For a laugh, peer-reviewed literature on AGW denial
Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?
– Diethelm and McKee (2009) European Journal of Public Health
Apocalypse Soon? Dire Messages Reduce Belief in Global Warming by Contradicting Just-World Beliefs
– Feinberg and Willer (2010) Psychological Science
The Psychology of Global Warming: Improving the Fit between the Science and the Message
– Newell and Pitman (2010) American Meteorological Society
Ten years to prevent catastrophe?: Discourses of climate change and international development in the UK press
– Doulton and Brown (2009) Global Environmental Change
Local Warming Daily Temperature Change Influences Belief in Global Warming
– Li, Johnson and Zaval (2011) Psychological Science
Why do people misunderstand climate change? Heuristics, mental models and ontological assumptions
– Chen (2011) Climatic Change (For interest. Not counted in this list)
The real holes in climate science
– Schiermeier (2010) Nature (an interesting, referenced news piece not counted in this list)
Self-censorship and science: a geographical review of media coverage of climate tipping points
– Antilla (2010) Public Understanding of Science (For interest. Not SCI listed and not counted in this list)
Related fossil fuel environmental impacts etc.
(Not counted in the list above)
Long-termpersistence of oil from the Exxon Valdez spill in two-layer beaches
– Li and Boufadel (2010) Nature Geoscience
The physical concept of climate forcing
– Liepert (2010) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climatic Change
Insect-damaged fossil leaves record food web response to ancient climate change and extinction
– Wilf (2008) New Phytologist
Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere
– Ellis (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A
High microbial activity on glaciers: importance to the global carbon cycle
– Anesio, Hodson, Fritz, Psenner and Sattler (2009) Global Change Biology
Genuinely excellent books on meeting climate change
(Obviously not counted in the list above)
Lifeboat Cities
By Brendan Gleeson
A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and Prosperity
By Lord Nicholas Stern
Opportunities Beyond Carbon: Looking forward to a sustainable world
Edited by John O’Brien
Journal listed
Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Not SCI listed)
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Annual Review of Marine Science
Annual Review of Physiology
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Biodiversity and Conservation
Biological Conservation
Biology Letters (Not SCI listed)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Chemistry and Ecology
Climate Dynamics
Climate of the Past (Not on the SCI list)
Climatic Change
Conservation Biology
Coral Reefs
Current Biology
Current Science
Earth Interactions
Ecography
Ecological Applications
Ecological Monograph
Ecology
Ecology and Society
Environmental & Resource Economics (Not SCI listed)
Environmental Research Letters
Eso, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (Not SCI listed)
European Journal of Public Health
Extremes
Fucntional Plant Biology
Geological Society
Geological Society of America Bulletin
Geophysical Monograph
Geophysical Research Letters
Global and Planetary Change
Global Change Biology
Global Ecology and Biogeography
Global Environmental Change
GSA Today
Hydrological Processes
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Mass Spectrometry
Journal of Animal Ecology
Journal of Climate
Journal of Experimental Biology
Journal of Geophysical Research
Journal of Glaciology
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Marine Science
Journal of Physical Oceanography
Journal of plant nutrition and soil science
Journal of Shellfish Research
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Landscape Ecology
Malaria Journal
Marine Ecology – Progress Series
Marine Pollution Bulletin
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Volume 1
Nature
Nature Climate Change
Nature Geoscience
New Phytologist
Ocean Dynamics
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences
Plant Biology
PLoS ONE
PNAS
Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Psychological Science (Not SCI listed)
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Reviews of Geophysics
Science
Soil Biology and Biochemistry
Sustainability Science (Not SCI listed)
The Lancet
Trends in Ecology and Evolution
Before hoards of trolls descend upon this comment thread to “inform” me that ‘AX paper refutes BX’ or ‘ecological papers don’t prove CO2 is to blame’ or whatever else their particular slant might actually be, let me provide a word of warning.
I won’t actually entertain this public debate over AGW – as explained above, I’m simply constructing a counter-weight to Poptech’s list where it might be linked to in the future and to provide a good resource for recent papers for interested individuals.
newanthropocene.wordpress.com 
Moth,
This is a nice list. You need to see Meet the Denominator over at Skeptical Science. In that post it is shown that, AT BEST, Poptech’s list of papers represents 0.1% of those that discuss climate change. Certainly nothing to hang one’s hat on now is it?
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Cheers Scott, and sorry that your comment went on moderation.
I became aware of Poptech’s list through that Global Warming Super Heroes site – they looked into it (and referred to Greenfyre who had done so previously). I tried my best not to censor Adam and Poptech, but it got beyond the joke and a large part of their ‘scepticism’ focused on that ridiculous list of Poptech’s. GWSH showed just how few were relevant (and it seems SkS went even further), but it doesn’t help people like Adam and Poptech – GWSH, SkS and climate scientists are apparently simply alarmists. Maybe providing excellent recent papers that state contrary to their point could work – if not, at least I’m making a stand for science against the misinformers.
Cheers for the link – hopefully readers follow it too. I’m tired of accommodating the ‘unconvinced’ but highly opinionated here.
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Why are you refusing to allow my post rebutting the nonsense from Skeptical Science? Afraid people will learn the truth?
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I posted here in direct response to a false claim. So why are you censoring the post here? It still says “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
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Tim , 200 looks like a lot of work get that together and you know what they will stay Ah but our list is 800 so we win . the whole thing is ridiculous as you say .
But will find it interesting reading at least , maybe POPTECH could read some of the papers to and gives us all his considered opinion .
I wonder if AGW didn’t involve having to make such drastic changes to decarbonise our lives , thereby also making it a political issue ,these people would really care about the science and if it’s true or not .
You don’t see millions of blogs of non scientists questioning quantum mechanics or whether bosons or quarks really exist or spin up or only down , that quarks can only spin to the right and it’s a leftwing commo plot to get us to believe that they spin to the left . Imagine that .
Imagine also if climate scientist said yes C02 causes AWG but we can let it rise to 7000ppm before there is dangerous warming , therefore we can burn all our oil and coal and be fine for 500yrs before we need to do anything , it would be a non political issue . Most people would go Oh well that’s good and get on with life .
It would ironical most likely be the greens who would be saying the science flawed and the right wingers saying no we trust our scientist , besides all the science is peer reviewed the debate is over !! .
See Poptech you could have just as easily found yourself defending the scientist that say AWG is real if only the physics of the raditive forcings was slightly different .
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Yeah, I’m waiting for the ‘war of size’ – these characters are that immature after all. I’m sure you could put together practically endless lists of crap. It’s more difficult compiling a relevant list of quality science literature. I had around 80 papers that were useful on my computer and then had to do research for the rest. I found some great stuff – especially the other denial papers and the Exxon oil spill – I was amazed by the reading I found.
A good example of what you’re talking is the ozone hole. For a short while there was indeed a committed group of deniers with the same kind of “sciences” papers to back them, ‘disproving’ that our CFC’s were responsible. That the alternative was fairly cheap and easy saw such nonsense fall away pretty quickly. As you say, there’s no easy option for decarbonisation. The denial is with us until we can prove the future isn’t so bleak without carbon – Gen[A]! 🙂
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It is not a good idea to censor me,
Rebuttal to the Deranged Mothincarnate
Any time your list shows up so with my post.
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You really need to get out more, there’s more to life than being an angry ‘citizen scientist’.
Again, I’m intrigued that you of all people have taken offence to this list. I assure you, I’m happy for people to read over our exchange to date – there really isn’t much point pursuing it further, so why worry about censoring? I fixed up your concerns and know all too well how much you feel you’ve vanquished every rebuttal to your list – but it’s so funny how quick you are to get grump about mine, with a thrown in mild-threat. I just don’t get what drives people like you. I care about a wonderful, rich and diverse world for my children, while you seem to find nothing wrong in trusting a small group of contrarian scientists who have proven ties to fossil fuel money and The Heartland Institute (do you honestly think, after their tobacco support that they have the wider communities concerns at heart or industry?)
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I have not taken offense to your list but the incorrect claims you have made regarding me in the commentary accompanying it.
Why would you want people to read incomplete conversations? How would that accurately represent what was said? It surely does not represent my position.
I have refuted every major criticism of the list because they were all based on misinformation, false claims, lies and strawman arguments.
What drives me is correcting misinformation about myself and my work.
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I’m tired of our conversation – why would I entertain it further?
I’ve corrected the claim that Adam didn’t recruit you (but left it a puzzling fact that you showed up soon after I initially mentioned you to him in a comment thread)
I’ve reworded my points and linked back to your comments so others can see if I’ve done you justice.
I will not entertain rubbish about Monckton because that is beyond the joke – only denial of direct evidence can support supporting him and believing “free speech” of his calibre has a place in science (one only needs to point out the damage his done to public education to put the man’s point beyond reason)
You wanted me to read some denial books
You admit to basing your understanding of the relevant science from “personal research”
And yes – you think you’ve successfully challenged ever last criticism of your list… so what? I disagree, many others disagree.
What have I got wrong?
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You are always tired of having anyone correct any of you misinformation. I would be too if I stated as many false claims as you made.
Just because I know how to use the Internet is not a cause for a conspiracy claim.
It is quite rich that you are not entertaining anything about the topic you brought up! I never brought Monckton up.
I support free speech period, I am disappointed you don’t but this is not surprising.
You obviously have no intent on being intellectually honest about any of this and instead called both books that I suggested as “denial” books when I explicitly told you they do not reject AGW theory.
I admit to being unconvinced of AGW Alarm by my extensive research.
I have successfully challenged every major criticism of the list because each and every one was based on misinformation, false claims, lies and strawman arguments.
While you link to my replies, that does not include the ones that never appeared.
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I’m sure you are tired – I see you popping up everywhere to defend your list.
Yes, you did bring up Monckton by his inclusion on your list.
I too support free speech, but likewise, I support accuracy of information. When both are under question, I choose accuracy over free speech – this whole denial campaign is exactly what threatens free speech.
You too obviously have no intent on accuracy of information – that you would refer to grey literature and a number of your listed article rather than the excellent papers included on my list above.
‘Extensive research’ – I get so sick of this. There’s no quality control. My research was continually put under evaluation as a university student and since in my various positions. Adam is exactly the same – it’s being open minded without critical training. You’re previous comment about computer models demonstrates as much.
Please, your other comments where the same repetitive points. I don’t know why you think I owe you that? You’ve got your own blog – bitch there about me. What do I care? I am an environmental scientist and I’ve provided so far more than 200 papers of which I believe to be good quality. I don’t believe your list comes close. That said, I don’t care even about all that; as long as you promote people like Adam demanding I debunk such a list, I’ll build on this one.
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I am not remotely tired.
No I did not bring up Monckton in any of our discussions you did. His inclusion on my list has nothing to do with the fact that you brought him up for debate.
I support accuracy out of free speech not over it.
I had no idea that recommending two books to someone would be twisted around into some silly “grey literature” argument. My mistake believing you had an open mind.
My list is very and fully cited.
I have had extensive training in research and analysis from my university years through my current employment.
Your lack of a computer science education explains why you do not understand my comments about computer models. I find this common with most natural scientists.
You seem confused about Adam and myself. While I have conversed with him on various occasions after visiting sites he was already visiting, he is an independent mind coming to his own conclusions. So I am not promoting anything outside of independent thought.
People are free to ignore every single paper and argument made in them on my list. I am just making sure people know they exist.
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Hence the circular habit of our conversations… yawn….
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FYI for other readers: ever more people are pointing out just how silly Poptech’s list actually is. See Greenfyre’s new post and this one; part II by The Carbon Brief.
I might be “deranged” in this bloke’s mind, but it really doesn’t mean much when we consider his “logical” approach at deduction. In every possible way, his list is a patchwork quilt designed to hide beneath.
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Well, for my part, I’m keeping this list.
Handy that your categories are very similar to mine. What a bonus!
I know that you get fed up from time to time, but the rest of us appreciate your efforts. Thank you.
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As Poptech mentioned – there’s been a lot more in the background (Adam especially was becoming quite concerning), but if anything it’s made me want to create this list even more so – besides the counter-weight to the apparently indestructible Poptech 800 list, as you say, it’s actually starting to form a really nice list of useful papers. Unfortunately a lot are behind paywalls. The few that surprised me where the others I threw under denial header and the Exxon paper at the bottom.. interesting reading.
I’m glad you find the categories useful. To be honest, I was looking at the papers and realised I was getting lazy splitting them up – so I’m sure a few should go in another spot.
Thanks for the kind words. I suspect the frustration I’ve been feeling with these two characters has been written all over the blog of late (which I apologise for), but I’ve had some supporting comments and emails which has been great – sometimes you feel like it must be a waste as there doesn’t seem to be the dialogue. Oh; I’ll be ever growing this list also! 🙂
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Poptech I think Tim is suffering ennui at the insular nature of your arguments rather than tiredness .
Now you insult him by calling him “Deranged” why do that ? oh because that’s your opinion yes , just like your opinion that the climate science is flawed , an opinion based on your research from reading (Web/books) other peoples work that the science is flawed , how are you really qualified to reach such a result ? , yes your intelligent your a computer analyst .
Anyway what do civil engineers know about reviewing the effects of Co2 and it effects on ice -(Proceedings of the ICE – Civil Engineering, Volume 160, Issue 2, pp. 66-72, May 2007)
– David Bellamy, Jack Barrett ……………? why is it in a civil engineering pubication ?
Alot of the papers I cant even access could you ? or did you just find papers that agreed with your opinion and add it and then what about these ,
the same paper submitted in four different journals is this how you puff it up to 850 ?
Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States, (Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 111, Number 14, pp. 1712-1718, November 2003)
Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Wendy M. Novicoff
Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States,
(Climate Research, Volume 22, Number 2, pp. 175-184. September 2002)
Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Wendy M. Novicoff, Patrick J. Michaels
Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities
(International Journal of Biometeorology, Volume 47, Number 3, pp. 166-175, May 2003)
Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Wendy M. Novicoff, Patrick J. Michaels
Seasonality of climate–human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change, (Climate Research, Volume 26, Number 1, pp. 61-76, April 2004)
Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Wendy M. Novicoff
ooh can feel the ennui kicking in :-O
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I called him deranged based on his behavior towards my comments and his obsession with Monckton.
I’ve read both sides of the issue, the IPCC report and the skeptic arguments against it, many peer-reviewed papers on both sides, various other reports and yes (gasp) books. No single source formed my view.
“Anyway what do civil engineers know about reviewing the effects of Co2 and it effects on ice”
Peer-review does not mean reviewed by members of the profession a journal is named after but by experts in the field the paper is on.
“Alot of the papers I cant even access could you?”
I have read an abstract or summary for every paper on the list, unfortunately I cannot provide full access to all. Where I have obtained the full paper I have read all the conclusions, and many of these papers completely.
“the same paper submitted in four different journals is this how you puff it up to 850 ?”
This is incorrect, those are not identical papers, for instance they cover different date ranges or are of different lengths for an extended analysis. Yes they use similar data in some parts but are not the same paper. This is irrelevant as the list is intentionally kept well above the stated number so nothing is needed to “puff it up”.
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I bet, by stating that you’ve read the “sceptical arguments” against the IPCC report, you’re eluding to the Heartland Institutes NIPCC? If so, feel free to smoke another packet, because we all know smoking doesn’t cause cancer or heart disease, right?
I’d suggest you try having a flip through those papers linked above.
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The NIPCC report is not a direct criticism but an independent report comparable to the IPCC report. Here are just some of the criticisms I have read of the IPCC report,
Independent Summary for Policymakers: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (PDF) (64pgs) (Fraser Institute)
Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers (PDF) (130pgs) (Fraser Institute)
Working Group (WG) I’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Working Group (WG) II’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Working Group (WG) III’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Be Sure to Read the Fine Print (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
Don’t bother with trying to smear the institutes as I have heard it all before.
Please show where the Heartland Institute believes or has ever supported the notion that smoking does not cause cancer or heart disease.
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Fraser Institute? The Marshall Institute? lol
Of course you’ve heard the whole “alarmist smear” spill on this before. It’s funny how your stance has to continually fall back on all these smear campaigns on contrarian arguments.
“Please show where the Heartland Institute believes or has ever supported the notion that smoking does not cause cancer or heart disease.”
Did you really mean to write this?
That’s it, you’ve demonstrated enough of your belief system for this site. I encourage you to complain on your own site, but nothing else will be entertained here.. I hope my readers are happy with this, because I’m not a fan of censorship, but (in the timeless words of Graham Chapman) “this has just got silly!”
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In your list, the paper:
Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change
– Siddall, Stocker and Clark (2009) Nature Geoscience
has been retracted:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/full/ngeo780.html
it predicted too low (!) sea level rise !
New papers about see level rise and ice melting:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2009JB006847.shtml
Click to access j10j101.pdf
In press:
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/papersinpress.shtml
Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts (2011),
Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL046583, in press.
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Cheers mate – I’ll fix it up asap!
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http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/10594/Welcome_to_Heartlands_Smokers_Lounge.html
Junk Science
How harmful is smoking to smokers? Public health advocates who claim one out of every three, or even one out of every two, smokers will die from a smoking-related illness are grossly exaggerating the real threat. The actual odds of a smoker dying from smoking before the age of 75 are about 1 in 12. In other words, 11 out of 12 life-long smokers don’t die before the age of 75 from a smoking-related disease.
Heartland my not actually deny that that smoking cuases cancer but they do a damn fine job of trying to convince you that the risks are way lower than is reported .
Lets face it the whole carbon /tabacco tax thing is really about indivduals right to do as they please and obfusacting the science is just part of the tactics .
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Cheers David,
I think Andrew (aka Poptech) just exposed his ability to critically analyse data resources. He’s so quick to challenge us not to link to what he thinks are alarmist smear campaigns, but it’s difficult to argue with the actual source.
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And here Poptech a rebuttal of Levy and Marimont study and it flawed methodology ,
A Critical Assessment of “Lies, Damned Lies, & 400,000 Smoking-Related Deaths” by Robert Levy and Rosalind Marimont Published in Regulation,* Fall 1998
By Elizabeth M. Whelan, Sc.D., M.P.H., Alicia M. Lukachko, M.P.H.
http://www.acsh.org/publications/pubID.498/pub_detail.asp
It took a bit of reading but I think they do a good job of showing the problems arising from the assumed effects of other factors and the fact that these are taken into consideration .
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Sorry David – I just found this in the spam… what the? Sorry again for that.
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Ah wondered where it went , well least it didnt go under an alfoil hat . 🙂 .
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lol – of course not. I’ve enjoyed your comments 🙂
It’s strange – must have been something about your comment that the automated system assumed was spam. I was looking in there following Andrew complaining that his comments weren’t coming through (and he still accuses me of thoughtless censorship) and I couldn’t find any of his there (a point that I actually said to him, but rather than admitting that there was only one comment pending not a few as he suggested, he went on to complain about that one comment instead – slippery is the AGW “sceptic”).
Please don’t hesitate if any other comments don’t make it through – I’ll do my best to find out what happened.
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I have written a new rebuttal based on your current wording,
Rebuttal to Mothincarnate
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Watch out, Andrew will say ” I don’t deny, I’m just not convinced, find me where I ever said I will not be satisfied or convinced, I know what would convince or satisfy me, it’s for me to know and you to find out, and even though I’ll never tell you what would change my mind, you still don’t get to call me a denier because I have a right to privacy and my opinion”
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‘copy and paste’? I’ve noticed that the language he uses seems of that nature.
It’s funny how quick he was from telling me that my tactic was censorship and attack (hardly correcting that lie when, after creating the alfoil hat, I made all the previously trashed comments that I could salvage live – oh that’s right, moving them while clearly linking them to their original position is still censorship in his view) only to do a 180 and expect me to censor you because he has problems with you. Unfortunately Andrew has a very odd way of looking at the world – and one I certainly don’t endeavour to understand.
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