430+ Genuine Science Papers Supporting Confidence in the AGW theory and Relevant Environmental Concern

Almost a decade ago, I was cleaning up the many catalogues that lay across the coffee table and couch (my partner at the time had an unnatural obsession with them which drove me mad) and happened to notice an unusual book for sale. It was titled 50 predictions of doomsday (from memory – the net is alight with paranoid discussions regarding 2012 that a quick google search cannot retrieve the book).

To the bewilderment of my partner back then, I found this hysterical. It’s no more than predicting (or more appropriately guessing, without meaningful evidence) how many jelly beans are in the jar. That the book provides 50 “predictions” if anything weakens it’s position, rather than strengthens it.

All you need for anything is one hypothesis that that is tested and retested rigorously and independently and supported by other complimentary studies also carried out in a like fashion – that is to say, it’s not how many hypotheses you have, but rather how many times you’ve tested the one hypothesis, by various methods and forces to draw the same conclusion.

Another way to explain it would be to have a box of chocolates. It’s a pack of 30, laid out in three trays of ten. Only one has been consumed.

Of the nine that remain, you can tell that all are caramel centred; does this suggest that the one gone was also caramel centred? Maybe, but not necessarily.

Further investigation reveals that the second tray is also completely full of caramel centred chocolates, but still you could be cautious. Even when the third tray reveals nothing but caramel centred chocolates, you could argue that maybe it was an unfortunate (or fortunate depending on your tastes) statistical streak, but you would certainly argue, with greater confidence as you explored the trays, that the one missing chocolate was very likely to also have been caramel centred.

That is the type of confidence expressed in science. It’s based on increasing evidence.
Opposed to this is the more natural behaviour as expressed by the book above. It’s an assertion that relies on there being so many hypotheses as support; so many people have guessed of a doomsday, therefore it’s inevitable. And it is inevitable – the solar system cannot live forever, so we can be asserted of a kind of doomsday, but not because some prophet guessed it, but because science has increased our understanding of the behaviour of suns.

This is in many ways my problem with Andrew’s (aka Poptech) list of 800 papers supporting scepticism of AGW alarm.

To return to the chocolate analogy, no one chocolate alone proves or disproves the caramel centre of the missing piece – it is all the chocolates together that increase our certainty. It’s that the evidence of each piece together reinforce the conclusions of the others leading us to make assumptions about the unknowns.

Let’s say that the process line isn’t perfect. Occasionally a dud chocolate is spat out that don’t have a caramel centre and sometimes – not too often – some nuts from a neighbouring conveyor belt spill and contaminate the caramel centred chocolate process. Of course, these imperfections would need to be weeded out – welcome to the peer-review process.

Andrew effectively pushes the box of climate science box of chocolates side and fills a new 30 piece box. Some are indeed caramel centred, while others are from the reject bin (heavily criticised studies) and others still are from a completely different manufacture (social or economical that have little to do with questioning the reality of AGW, therefore have limited impact on addressing AGW alarm). Now deducing what the missing piece is becomes impossible.

There is no meaningful expression in the assortment. Some of the chocolates even impossible to classify. Some may appear reasonable – without reference as to why they were in the reject bin. Does this disprove that the missing piece was a caramel centred chocolate? Of course not. Such a list does nothing to prove or disprove anything. It’s just a random collection that supports no conclusions of any sort at all, except that they are in fact chocolate, which is more or less meaningless to the point.

This whole annoying episode start with Adam challenging me with Andrew’s list;

“I gave you 800 peer reviewed scientific papers supporting skeptisicm of AGW/AGW alarm… when there are over 850 scientific papers supporting skeptisicm of AGW, surrely to any same person, that would at least provide some reason to question the theory.”

I’ve tried in great detail to explain the problems inherent in such a preposterous position; it’s not a game of who has more papers or what one paper states by itself – but rather a coherent conclusion drawn by many independent studies that all together in our confidence in a certain conclusion.

For what it’s worth, Andrew has fragmentally stated as much about his list;

“No claim is made that the list is only of natural science papers (though many of these exist on the list) but rather that they are all peer-reviewed. The list does not only include papers that support skepticism of AGW but also ones that support skepticism of AGW Alarm, defined as concern relating to a negative environmental or socio-economic effect of AGW, usually exaggerated as catastrophic. The list is not a unified theory but a resource.”

From this, I can only conclude that the list is nothing but a haphazard list of random science, social and economic articles that while together cannot form a sensible coherent alternative – indeed many of the papers even contradict each other – but rather forms an inconsistent catalogue of various reports to encourage various forms of AGW “scepticism”.

In the general style of such people, he’s gone on and on and on and on and on about my language rather than a coherent basis for his reasoning… I’m sick of making the required corrections, explaining why certain changes won’t be made and basically wasting my time talking to someone I don’t I just don’t want to talk to.

To some up, I really don’t think his list stands as a tower, opposing some orthodoxy of AGW (not that I’m suggesting Andrew does, but certainly fans of his do), but instead is little more than a random scattering of bricks that he has laid out so that the so-called AGW “sceptics” can hurl them at us “alarmists” or “warmist” and has little to do with scientific reasoning and investigation. It’s just an easy go-to place for the busy troll to stop by, chose a paper and demand others in the blogosphere “prove it wrong” (or if they’re lazy, link back to the entire list and demand as Adam did).

I, on the other hand, will slowly build by a counter list that more rigorously focuses on the sciencethe observed, the tested, the modelled and projectedof all matters anthropogenic global warming, related environmental concern and impacts on humanity, thereby not providing a chaotic assortment of ideas, but rather mutually supporting studies that have led to our confidence in the AGW theory (I assure you, not as easy a task as it would be to grab any “sceptical” paper available – ie. it’s harder to accumulate evidence to support the conclusion about the missing chocolate than it is to collect chocolate of any sort).

The most recently added papers with 50 blocks (ie. 50, 100, 150..) are flagged with (NEW), which is removed when I hit the next point. I’ll be updating often, so please check about regularly (the updating title will tell you at 10 paper intervals where I’m up to).

Note: I apologise, some papers will be behind a pay wall.

General Climate papers

Stable isotope ratio mass spectrometry in global climate change research

– Ghosh and Brand (2003) International Journal of Mass Spectrometry

Past extreme warming events linked to massive carbon release from thawing permafrost

– DeConto, Galeotti, Pagani, Tracy, Schaefer, Zhang, Pollard and Beerling (2012) Nature

How sensitive is climate sensitivity?

– Roe and Armour (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon

Sexton, Norris, Wilson, Pälike, Westerhold, Röhl, Bolton and Gibbs (2011) Nature

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

Mann, Zhang, Hughes, Bradley, Miller, Rutherford and Ni (2008) PNAS

Sources, media, and modes of climate change communication: the role of celebrities

– Anderson (2011) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (I included this because AGW has given celebrities another excuse to bore us all, thinking that their point of view is very important)

Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction

– Možný, Brázdil, Dobrovolný and Trnka (2011) Climatic Change

Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly

– Mann,Zhang, Rutherford, Bradley, Hughes, Shindell, Ammann, Faluvegi and Ni (2009) Science

Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity

– Tanaka, Raddatz, O’Neill and Reick (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

Constraining climate sensitivity with linear fits to outgoing radiation

– Murphy (2010) Geophysical Research Letters

Feedback and sensitivity in an electrical circuit: an analog for climate models

– Schwartz (2010) Climatic Change

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Haywood, Ridgwell, Lunt, Hill, Pound, Dowsett, Dolan, Francis and Williams (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

The Columbian Encounter and the Little Ice Age: Abrupt Land Use Change, Fire, and Greenhouse Forcing

– Dull, Nevle, Woods, Bird, Avnery and Denevan (2010) Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Not SCI listed) – Really interesting

Global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus

Burkhardt and Kärcher (2011) Nature Climate Change

The Roles of CO2 and Orbital Forcing in Driving Southern Hemispheric Temperature Variations during the Last 21 000 Yr

– Timmermann, Timm, Stott and Menviel (2009) Journal of Climate

The Anthropocene: a new epoch of geological time?

Zalasiewicz, Williams, Haywood and Ellis (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction

Cuffey and Vimeux (2001) Nature

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols

– Jacobson (2001) Nature

Greenhouse crises of the past 300 million years

Retallack (2009) Geological Society of America Bulletin

Carbon and Climate System Coupling on Timescales from the Precambrian to the Anthropocene

Doney and Schimel (2007) Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years

Crowley (2000) Nature

Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters

Kaspi and Schneider (2011) Nature – In response to; “freak cold in region X disproves warming!”

Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001

– Jones and Moberg (2003) Journal of Climate

Revisiting the determination of climate sensitivity from relationships between surface temperature and radiative fluxes

– Chung, Soden and Sohn (2010) Geophysical Research Letters

Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change

– Gregory and Forster (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research

Depth of Convection and the Weakening of Tropical Circulation in Global Warming

– Chou and Chen (2010) Journal of Climate

A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade

– Dessler (2010) Science

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions

– Matthews, Gillett, Stott and Zickfeld (2009) Nature

Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000

– Wild, Trüssel, Ohmura, Long, König-Langlo, Dutton and Tsvetkov (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research

The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes

– Knutti and Hegerl (2008) Nature Geoscience

Warming trends in Asia amplified by brown cloud solar absorption

– Ramanathan, Ramana, Roberts, Kim, Corrigan, Chung and Winker (2007) Nature

A strong bout of natural cooling in 2008

– Perlwitz, Hoerling, Eischeid, Xu and Kumar (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

Anthropogenic Warming of Earth’s Climate System

Levitus, Antonov, Wang, Delworth, Dixon and Broccoli (2001) Science

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

– Cox, Betts, Jones, Spall and Totterdell (2000) Nature

High sea-surface temperatures during the Early Cretaceous Epoch

– Littler, Robinson, Bown, Nederbragt and Pancost (2011) Nature Geoscience

Is the climate warming or cooling?

– Easterling and Wehner (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979–2007

– Allan and Zveryaev (2011) International Journal of Climatology

Observed changes in precipitation on the wettest days of the year in China, 1960–2000

– Liu, Henderson, Xu and Zhang (2011) International Journal of Climatology

Trends in heavy precipitation in the Czech Republic over 1961–2005

– Kyselý (2009) International Journal of Climatology

External Control of 20th Century Temperature by Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

Stott, Tett, Jones, Allen, Mitchell and Jenkins (2000) Science

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

– Royer, Berner and Park (2007) Nature

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

– Schär, Vidale, Lüthi, Frei, Häberli, Liniger and Appenzeller (2004) Nature

An Observationally Based Estimate of the Climate Sensitivity

Gregory, Stouffer, Raper, Stott and Rayner (2000) Journal of Climate

Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system

– Schwartz (2007) Journal of Geophysical Research

Modern Global Climate Change

Karl and Trenberth (2003) Science

Australian climate–carbon cycle feedback reduced by soil black carbon

Lehmann, Skjemstad, Sohi, Carter, Barson, Falloon, Coleman, Woodbury and Krull (2008) Nature Geoscience

How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?

– Lean and Rind (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future

– Andreae, Jones and Cox (2005) Nature

An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950

– Murphy, Solomon, Portmann, Rosenlof, Forster and Wong (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research

Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective

– Stott, Gillett, Hegerl, Karoly, Stone, Zhang and Zwiers (2010) Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century

Shindell and Faluvegi (2009) Nature Geoscience

Climate change and trace gases

Hansen, Sato, Kharecha, Russell, Lea and Siddall (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Satellite measurements of the clear-sky greenhouse effect from tropospheric ozone

– Worden, Bowman, Worden, Eldering and Beer (2008) Nature Geoscience

Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming

Solomon, Rosenlof, Portmann, Daniel, Davis, Sanford and Plattner (2010) Science

Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon

– Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008) Nature Geoscience

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

New, Hewitson, Stephenson,s Tsiga, Kruger, Manhique, Gomez, Coelho, Masisi, Kululanga, Mbambalala, Adesina, Saleh, Kanyanga, Adosi, Bulane, Fortunata,  Mdoka and Lajoie (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases

Solomon, Daniel, Sanford, Murphy, Plattner, Knutti and Friedlingstein (2010) PNAS

Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961–2003

– Aguilar, Peterson, Obando, Frutos, Retana, Solera, Soley, Garcıa, Araujo, Santos, Valle, Brunet, Aguilar, Alvarez, Bautista, Castanon, Herrera, Ruano, Sinay, Sanchez, Oviedo, Obed, Salgado, Vazquez, Baca, Gutierrez, Centella, Espinosa, Martınez, Olmedo, Espinoza, Nunez, Haylock, Benavides and Mayorga (2005) Journal of Geophysical Research

High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations

Pagani, Liu,  LaRiviere and Ravelo (2010) Nature Geoscience

Ice Age Terminations

Cheng, Edwards, Broecker, Denton, Kong, Wang,Zhang and Wang (2009) Science

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100

Breecker, Sharp and McFadden (2010) PNAS

Changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection

Johnson and Xie (2010) Nature Geoscience

Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

Saenger, Cohen, Oppo, Halley and Carilli (2009) Nature Geoscience

Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels

Shaffer, Olsen and Pedersen (2009) Nature Geoscience

Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

Archer, Eby, Brovkin, Ridgwell, Cao, Mikolajewicz, Caldeira, Matsumoto, Munhoven, Montenegro and Tokos (2009) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences

CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate

Royer, Berner, Montanez, Tabor, Beerling (2004) GSA Today

Climate sensitivity to the carbon cycle modulated by past and future changes in ocean chemistry

Goodwin, Williams, Ridgwell and Follows (2009) Nature Geoscience

Climate commitment in an uncertain world

Armour and Roe (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Changing structure of European precipitation: Longer wet periods leading to more abundant rainfalls

– Zolina, Simmer, Gulev and Kollet (2010) Geophysical Research Letters

Lessons from Earth’s Past

Kiehl (2011) Science

Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications

– Hansen, Nazarenko, Ruedy, Sato, Willis, Del Genio, Koch, Lacis, Lo, Menon, Novakov, Perlwitz, Russell, Schmidt, and, Tausnev (2005) Science

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

– Pall, Aina, Stone, Stott, Nozawa, Hilberts, Lohmann and Allen (2011) Nature

Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008

– Flanner, Shell, Barlage, Perovich and Tschudi (2011) Nature Geoscience

‘It’s not all the Sun’ and the Cosmic Ray delusion

Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum

– Lockwood (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance

– Kopp and Lean (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Solar Influences on Climate

– Gray, Beer, Geller, Haigh, Lockwood, Matthes, Cubasch, Fleitmann, Harrison, Hood, Luterbacher, Meehl, Shindell, van Geel, and White (2010) Reviews of Geophysics

Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation

– Alexander, Zhang, Peterson, Caesar, Gleason, Klein Tank, Haylock, Collins, Trewin, Rahimzadeh, Tagipour, Rupa Kumar, Revadekar, Griffiths, Vincent, Stephenson, Burn, Aguilar, Brunet, Taylor, New, Zhai, Rusticucci and Vazquez-Aguirre, (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

– Alexander and Arblaster (2009) International Journal of Climatology

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature

Lockwood and Fröhlich (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

Lockwood and Fröhlich (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

Lockwood (2007) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Global dimming and brightening: A review

– Wild (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research

Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?

– Lockwood, Harrison, Woollings and Solanki (2010)  Environmental Research Letters

Changes in daily temperature and precipitation extremes in central and south Asia

– Klein Tank, Peterson, Quadir, Dorji, Zou, Tang, Santhosh, Joshi, Jaswal, Kolli, Sikder, Deshpande, Revadekar, Yeleuova, Vandasheva, Faleyeva, Gomboluudev, Budhathoki, Hussain, Afzaal, Chandrapala, Anvar, Amanmurad, Asanova, Jones, New and Spektorman (2006) Journal of Geophysical Research

Solar influence on Climate

Gray, Beer, Geller, Haigh, Lockwood, Matthes, Cubasch, Fleitmann, Harrison, Hood, Luterbacher, Meehl, Shindell, van Geel and White (2010) Reviews of Geophysics

On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth

– Feulner and Rahmstorf (2010) Geophysical Research Letters

Cosmic Rays, Carbon Dioxide, and Climate

-Rahmstorf, Archer, Ebel, Eugster, Jouzel, Maraun, Neu, Schmidt, Severinghaus, Weaver and Zachos (2004) Eso, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (Not SCI listed, h/t Beth)

Comparison of Spectrally Resolved Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the Tropical Pacific between 1970 and 2003 Using IRIS, IMG, and AIRS

– Griggs and Harries (2007) Journal of Climate

How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?

– Lean and Rind (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

No climate paradox under the faint early Sun

Rosing, Bird, Sleep and Bjerrum (2010) Nature

Solar trends and global warming

– Benestad and Schmidt (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research

For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?

– Abreu, Beer, Steinhilber, Tobias and Weiss (2008) Geophysical research letters

Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

– Anderson, Knight, Ringer, Deser, Phillips, Yoon and Cherchi (2010) Climate Dynamics

How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006

– Lean and Rind (2008) Geophysical Research Letters

Influence of human and natural forcing on European seasonal temperatures

– Hegerl, Luterbacher, González-Rouco, Tett, Crowley and Xoplaki (2011) Nature Geoscience

A critical look at solar-climate relationships from long temperature series

– Legras, Mestre, Bard and Yiou (2010) Climate of the Past (Not on the SCI list)

Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997

– Harries, Brindley, Sagoo and Bantges (2001) Nature

An analysis of the dependence of clear-sky top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation on atmospheric temperature and water vapor

– Dessler, Yang, Lee, Solbrig, Zhang and Minschwaner (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research

Evolution and Trend of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Spectrum

– Huang and Ramaswamy (2009) Journal of Climate

Ecological response to climate change

Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species’ low-latitude range boundaries

– Franco, Hill, Kitschke, Collingham, Roy, Fox, Huntley and Tomas (2006) Global Change Biology

Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change

– Kiewan and Mudd (2012) Nature

Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification adversely affected by warming

Rodolfo-Metalpa, Houlbrèque, Tambutté, Boisson, Baggini, Patti, Jeffree, Fine, Foggo, Gattuso and Hall-Spencer (2011) Nature Climate Change

Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change

Bálint, Domisch, Engelhardt, Haase, Lehrian, Sauer, Theissinger, Pauls and Nowak (2011) Nature Climate Change

Soil carbon release enhanced by increased tropical forest litterfall

Sayer, Heard, Grant, Marthews and Tanner (2011) Nature Climate Change

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

McDonald-Madden, Runge, Possingham and Martin (2011) Nature Climate Change

Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire

Mack, Bret-Harte, Hollingsworth, Jandt, Schuur, Shaver and Verbyla (2011) Nature

Tolerance limit for fish growth exceeded by warming waters

Neuheimer, Thresher, Lyle and Semmens (2011) Nature Climate Change

Dynamics of the larch taiga–permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

– Zhang, Yasunari and Ohta (2011) Environmental Research Letters

Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations

Soja, Tchebakova, French,Flannigan, Shugart, Stocks, Sukhinin,Parfenova, Chapin III and Stackhouse (2006) Global and Planetary Change

Climate change and the northern Russian treeline zone

– MacDonald,Kremenetski and Beilman (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

– Lee and Jetz (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society B – Really interesting

Priming depletes soil carbon and releases nitrogen in a scrub-oak ecosystem exposed to elevated CO2

Langley, McKinley, Wolf, Hungate, Drake and Megonigal (2009) Soil Biology and Biochemistry

Feedbacks of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climate Change

– Field, Lobell, Peters and Chiariello (2007) Annual Review of Environment and Resources

Differences in Thermal Tolerance Among Sockeye Salmon Populations

Eliason, Clark, Hague, Hanson, Gallagher, Jeffries, Gale, Patterson, Hinch and Farrell (2011) Science

Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

Dawson, Jackson, House, Prentice and Mace (2011) Science

Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution

Root , MacMynowski, Mastrandrea and Schneider (2005) PNAS

Vascular plant success in a warming Antarctic may be due to efficient nitrogen acquisition

Hill, Farrar, Roberts, Farrell, Grant, Newsham, Hopkins, Bardgett and Jones (2011) Nature Climate Change.)

Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions

Beaumont, Pitman, Perkins, Zimmermann, Yoccoz and Thuiller (2011) PNAS

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Carey (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Bergmann’s rule and climate change revisited: Disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population

Teplitsky, Mills, Alho, Yarrall and Merilä (2008) PNAS

Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD

Williams, Jackson and Kutzbach (2007) PNAS

Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem

Cleland, Chiariello, Loarie, Mooney and Field (2006) PNAS

Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon

Oberle and Schaal (2011) PNAS – further evidence of a point I’m continually harping on about; resilience is increased by diversity, in this case, genetic diversity and connectivity (ie. ecological corridors)

Global Warming: Fly Populations Are Responding Rapidly to Climate Change

-Heerwaarden and Hoffmann (2006) Current Biology

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

– Deutsch, Tewksbury, Huey, Sheldon, Ghalambor, Haak and Martin (2008) PNAS

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats

– Both, Van Turnhout, Bijlsma, Siepel, Van Strien and Foppen (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

– Diamond, Frame, Martin and Buckley (2011) Ecology

Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau’s woods are driven by climate change

Willis, Ruhfel, Primack, Miller-Rushing and Davis (2008) PNAS

Simulating potential effects of climatic warming on altitudinal patterns of key species in Mediterranean-alpine ecosystems

– Benito, Lorite and Peñas (2011) Climatic Change

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

– Buddemeier, Lane and Martinich (2011) Climatic Change

Climate changes and its impact on tundra ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

– Wang, Bai, Li and Hu (2010) Climatic Change

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

– Townsend Peterson, Ortega-Huerta, Bartley, Sánchez-Cordero, Soberón, Buddemeier and Stockwell (2002) Nature

Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management

– Folke, Carpenter, Walker, Scheffer, Elmqvist, Gunderson and Holling (2004) Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics

The future of tropical forests

– Wright (2010) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians

Wake and  Vredenburg (2008) PNAS

A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

Mayhew, Jenkins and Benton (2008)Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the alpine habitat suitability of Japanese stone pine (Pinus pumila)

– Horikawa, Tsuyama, Matsui, Kominami and Tanaka (2009) Landscape Ecology (Not SCI listed)

Photosynthetic performance of lichen transplants as early indicator of climatic stress along an altitudinal gradient in the arid Mediterranean area

– Arg. Pirintsos,Paoli, Loppi and Kotzabasis (2011) Climatic Change

Climate change and seal survival: evidence for environmentally mediated changes in elephant seal, Mirounga leonina, pup survival

McMahon and Burton (2005) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Immune defence under extreme ambient temperature

Seppälä and Jokela (2010) Biology Letters (Not SCI listed)

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker’s Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

–  Damschen, Harrison and Grace (2010) Ecology

Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections

– La Sorte and Jetz (2010) Journal of Experimental Biology

Consequences of changing biodiversity

– Chapin III, Zavaleta, Eviner, Naylor, Vitousek, Reynolds, Hooper, Lavorel, Sala, Hobbie, Mack and Díaz (2000) Nature

Recent acceleration of biomass burning and carbon losses in Alaskan forests and peatlands

Turetsky, Kane, Harden, Ottmar, Manies, Hoy and Kasischke (2010) Nature Geoscience

Wetland conservation and sustainable use under global change: a tropical Australian case study using magpie geese

– Traill, Bradshaw, Delean and Brook (2010) Ecography

Increased cuticular carbon sequestration and lignin oxidation in response to soil warming

Feng, Simpson, Wilson, Williams and Simpson (2008) Nature Geoscience

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores

Post, Pedersen, Wilmers and Forchhammer (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths

– Altermatt (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Temperature-associated increases in the global soil respiration record

Bond-Lamberty and Thomson (2010) Nature

Impacts of climate change and environmental factors on reproduction and development in wildlife

Milligan, Holt and Lloyd (2009)Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea

– Cantin, Cohen, Karnauskas, Tarrant and McCorkle (2010) Nature

Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough

Devictor, Julliard, Couvet and Jiguet (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Global phytoplankton decline over the past century

– Cantin, Cohen, Karnauskas, Tarrant and McCorkle (2010) Science

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Jones, Lowe, Liddicoat and Betts (2009) Nature Geoscience

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

– Thuiller, Lavergne, Roquet, Boulangeat, Lafourcade and Araujo (2001) Nature

Mechanisms driving change: altered species interactions and ecosystem function through global warming

– Traill, Lim, Sodhi and Bradshaw (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology

Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise

Blum and Roberts (2009) Nature Geoscience

Predicting the fate of a living fossil: how will global warming affect sex determination and hatching phenology in tuatara?

Mitchell, Kearney and Nelson (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments

– Thackeray, Sparks, Frederiksen, Burthe, Bacon, Bell, Botham, Brereton, Bright, Carvalho, Clutton-Brock, Dawson, Edwards, Elliott, Harrington, Johns, Jones,  Jones, Leech, Roy, Scott, Smith, Smithers, Winfield and Wanless (2010) Global Change Biology

Physiology and Global Climate Change

– Feder (2010) Annual Review of Physiology

A clear human footprint in the coral reefs of the Caribbean

Mora (2008)Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Rapid poleward range expansion of tropical reef corals in response to rising sea surface temperatures

– Yamano, Sugihara, and Nomura (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Pragmatic population viability targets in a rapidly changing world

– Traill, Brook, Frankham and Bradshaw (2010) Biological Conservation

Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change

– Rosenzweig, Karoly, Vicarelli, Neofotis, Wu, Casassa, Menzel, Root, Estrella, Seguin, Tryjanowski, Liu, Rawlins and Imeson (2008) Nature

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

– Lindegren, Möllmann, Nielsen, Brander, MacKenzie and Stenseth (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Future habitat loss and the conservation of plant biodiversity

– Giam, Bradshaw, Tan and Sodhi (2010) Biological Conservation

Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology

– Dose and Menzel (2004) Global Change Biology

Climate change correlates with rapid delays and advancements in reproductive timing in an amphibian community

Todd, Scott, Pechmann and Gibbons (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem

– Shackell, Frank, Fisher, Petrie and Leggett (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

The 2010 Amazon Drought

– Lewis, Brando, Phillips, van der Heijden, Nepstad (2011) Science

Disparities between observed and predicted impacts of climate change on winter bird assemblages

La Sorte, Lee, Wilman and Jetz  (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change

– Anderson,  Akcakaya, Araujo, Fordham, Martinez-Meyer, Thuiller and Brook (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

A 250-year index of first flowering dates and its response to temperature changes

– Amano, Smithers, Sparks and Sutherland (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Beckage, Osborne, Gavin, Pucko, Siccama and Perkins (2007) PNAS

Forecasting the effects of global change scenarios on bioaccumulation patterns in great lakes species

– Ng and Gray (2011) Global Change Biology

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

– Carnicera, Colla, Ninyerola, Pons, Sánchez and Peñuelas (2011) PNAS

Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming

La Sorte and Jetz (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

The velocity of climate change

– Loarie, Duffy, Hamilton, Asner, Field and Ackerly (2009) Nature

Current State & Trends

– Mace, Masundire, Baillie, Ricketts, Brooks, Hoffmann, Stuart, Balmford, Purvis, Reyers, Wang, Revenga, Kennedy, Naeem, Alkemade, Allnutt, Bakarr, Bond, Chanson, Cox, Fonseca, Hilton-Taylor, Loucks, Rodrigues, Sechrest, Stattersfield, van Rensburg, Whiteman, Abell, Cokeliss, Lamoreux, Pereira, Thonell and Williams (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Volume 1

Regional warming changes fish species richness in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

– Hofstede, Hiddink and Rijnsdorp (2010) Marine Ecology – Progress Series

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes

Welbergen, Klose, Markus and Eby(2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

– Durner, Douglas, Nielson, Amstrup, McDonald, Stirling, Mauritzen, Born, Wiig, DeWeaver, Serreze, Belikov, Holland, Maslanik, Aars, Bailey and Derocher (2009) Ecological Monographs

Why tropical island endemics are acutely susceptible to global change

– Fordham and Brook (2010) Biodiversity and Conservation

Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change

– Gonzalez, Neilson, Lenihan and Drapek (2010) Global Ecology and Biogeography

Growth, carbon-isotope discrimination, and drought-associated mortality across a Pinus ponderosa elevational transect

– McDowell, Allen and Marshall (2009) Global Change Biology

Quantifying the negative feedback of vegetation to greenhouse warming: A modeling approach

– Bounoua, Hall, Sellers, Kumar, Collatz, Tucker and Imhoff (2010) Geophysical Research Letters

CO2 is ‘plant food’

(strictly speaking it’s still ecology, but I feel it warrants it’s own heading)

Carbon balance of Arctic tundra under increased snow cover mediated by a plant pathogen

Olofsson, Ericson, Torp, Stark and Baxter (2011) Nature Climate Change

Effects of elevated CO2 on grain yield and quality of wheat: results from a 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment.

– Högy, Wieser, Köhler, Schwadorf, Breuer, Franzaring, Muntifering and Fangmeier (2009) Plant Biology

Recent Widespread Tree Growth Decline Despite Increasing Atmospheric CO2

– Silva, Anand and Leithead (2010) PLoS ONE

What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2

Ainsworth and Long (2005) New Phytologist

Elevated CO2 reduces the nitrogen concentration of plant tissues

Cotrufo, Ineson and Scott (1998) Global Change Biology

Plant nutrient acquisition and utilisation in a high carbon dioxide world

Cavagnaro, Gleadow and Miller (2011) Functional Plant Biology

Effects of Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) on nitrogen mobilization and decomposition of elevated-CO2 Charlock mustard litter

Marhan, Rempt, Högy, Fangmeier and Kandeler (2010) Journal of plant nutrition and soil science

Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Inhibits Nitrate Assimilation in Wheat and Arabidopsis

Bloom, Burger, Asensio and  Cousins (2010) Science

Physical response to climate change

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

– Jung, Reichstein, Ciais, Seneviratne, Sheffield, Goulden, Bonan, Cescatti, Chen, de Jeu, JohannesDolman,r Eugster, Gerten, Gianelle, Gobron, Heinke, Kimball, Law, Montagnani, Mu, Mueller, Oleson, Papale, Richardson, Roupsard, Running, Tomelleri, Viovy, Weber, Williams, Wood, Zaehle and Zhang (2010) Nature

Evidence for a weakening of tropical surface wind extremes in response to atmospheric warming

– Gastineau and Soden (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in European storminess since 1871

– Donat, Renggl, Wild, Alexander, Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

An energetic perspective on the regional response of precipitation to climate change

Muller and O’Gorman (2011) Nature Climate Change

Revolatilization of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic induced by climate change

Ma, Hung, Tian and Kallenborn (2011) Nature Climate Change

Rapid change in semi-diurnal tides in the North Atlantic since 1980

– Müller (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Are we now living in the Anthropocene?

Zalasiewicz, Williams, Smith, Barry, Coe, Bown, Brenchley, Cantrill, Gale, Gibbard, Gregory, Hounslow, Kerr, Pearson, Knox, Powell, Waters, Marshall, Oates, Rawson, and Stone (2008) GSA Today

The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives

Steffen, Grinevald, Crutzen and  McNeill (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions

– Barnett, Adam and Lettenmaier (2005) Nature

Tropical Glacier and Ice Core Evidence of Climate Change on Annual to Millennial Time Scales

– Thompson, Mosley-Thompson, Davis, Lin, Henderson and Mashiotta (2003) Climatic Change

Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades

– Liu and Chen (2000) International Journal of Climatology

Alarming retreat of Parbati glacier, Beas basin, Himachal Pradesh

– Kulkarni (2005)Current science

Investigating the climate impacts of global land cover change in the community climate system model

– Lawrence and Chase (2010) International Journal of Climatology – Really interesting

Hydroclimatological impact of century-long drainage in midwestern United States: CCSM sensitivity experiments

– Kumar, Merwade, Lee, Zhao and Song (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research – Really interesting

Linking primary production, climate and land use along an urban–wildland transect: a satellite view

– Hu, Jia and Guo (2009) Environmental Research Letters

Paleoclimatic warming increased carbon dioxide concentrations

– Lemoine (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research – Deniers like to say that warming increases CO2, not the other way around, but the truth is, it’s a positive feedback

Recent northern hemisphere snow extent: A comparison of data derived from visible and microwave satellite sensors

– Armstrong and Brodzik (2001) Geophysical Research letters

Northern Hemisphere Ice-Sheet Influences on Global Climate Change

Clark, Alley and Pollard (1999) Science

Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise

Davis, Li, McConnell, Frey and Hanna (2005) Science

Variability and trends in the annual snow-cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972–2000

– Dye (2002) Hydrological Processes

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

– Hinzman, Bettez, Bolton, Chapin, Dyurgerov, Fastie, Griffith, Hollister, Hope, Huntington, Jensen, Jia, Jorgenson, Kane, Klein, Kofinas, Lynch, Lloyd, McGuire, Nelson, Oechel, Osterkamp, Racine, Romanovsky, Stone, Stow, Sturm, Tweedie, Vourlitis, Walker, Walker, Webber, Welker, Winker and Yoshikawa (2005) Climatic Change

Warming permafrost in European mountains

– Harris, Mühll, Isaksen, Haeberli, Sollid, King, Holmlund, Dramis, Guglielmin and Palacios (2003) Global and Planetary Change 

Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958–2003

– Hanna, Huybrechts, Janssens, Cappelen, Steffen and Stephens (2005) Journal of Geophysical Research

Three deep Alpine-permafrost boreholes in Svalbard and Scandinavia

– Isaksen, Holmlund, Sollid and Harris (2001) Permafrost and Periglacial Processes

Freshening of the Ross Sea During the Late 20th Century

Jacobs, Giulivi and Mele (2002) Science

Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland

Johannessen, Khvorostovsky, Miles and Bobylev (2005) Science

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

– Deo,  Ganer and Nair (2011) Natural Hazards

Rainfall characteristics for periglacial debris flows in the Swiss Alps: past incidences–potential future evolutions

– Stoffel, Bollschweiler and Beniston (2011) Climatic Change

Statistical assessment of changes in climate extremes over Greece (1955–2002)

– Kioutsioukis, Melas and Zerefos (2009) International Journal of Climatology

Role of Polar Amplification in Long-Term Surface Air Temperature Variations and Modern Arctic Warming

– Bekryaev, Polyakov and Vladimir A. Alexeev (2010) Journal of Climate

The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

– Arkin, Smith, Sapiano and Janowiak (2010) Environmental Research Letters

Variability in Springtime Thaw in the Terrestrial High Latitudes: Monitoring a Major Control on the Biospheric Assimilation of Atmospheric CO2 with Spaceborne Microwave Remote Sensing

– McDonald, Kimball, Njoku, Zimmermann and Zhao (2004) Earth Interactions

Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity

–  Vorosmarty, McIntyre, Gessner, Dudgeon, Prusevich, Green, Glidden, Bunn, Sullivan, Liermann and Davies (2010) Nature

Pan evaporation and wind run decline in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa (1974–2005): implications for vegetation responses to climate change

– Hoffman, Cramer, Gillson and Wallace (2011) Climatic Change

Global Warming Pattern Formation: Sea Surface Temperature and Rainfall

– Xie, Deser, Vecchi, Ma, Teng and Wittenberg (2010) Journal of Climate

Projected Future Seasonal Changes in Tropical Summer Climate

– Sobel and Camargo (2011)Journal of Climate

Regional and Global Impacts of Land Cover Change and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

– Findell, Pitman, England and Pegion (2009) Journal of Climate

Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

– Goelzer, Huybrechts, Loutre, Goosse, Fichefet and Mouchet (2010) Climate Dynamics

Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe

Hirschi, Seneviratne, Alexandrov, Boberg, Boroneant, Christensen, Formayer, Orlowsky and Stepanek (2010) Nature Geoscience

Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America

Seager and Vecchi (2010) PNAS

The Changing Character of Precipitation

– Trenberth, Dai, Rasmussen and Parsons (2003) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport

– Sohn and Park (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research

Winter intensification of the moist branch of the circulation in simulations of 21st century climate

– Laliberté and Pauluis (2010) Geophysical Research letters

Physical mechanism of long-term drying trend over tropical North Africa

– Kawase, Abe, Yamada, Takemura, Yokohata and Nozawa (2010) Geophysical Research letters

Weakening of the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue over the past six decades

Tokinaga and Xie (2011) Nature Geoscience

A Comparison of Australian Open Water Body Evaporation Trends for Current and Future Climates Estimated from Class A Evaporation Pans and General Circulation Models

– Johnson and Sharma (2010)  Journal of Hydrometeorology

The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño

– Collins, An, Cai, Ganachaud, Guilyardi, Jin, Jochum, Lengaigne, Power,  Timmermann, Vecchi and Wittenberg (2010) Nature Geoscience

Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming

– Romps (2011) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends

– Cordero, Kessomkiat, Abatzoglou and Mauget (2011) Climatic Change

The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Biodiversity, and Livelihoods

– Xu, Grumbine, Shrestha, Eriksson, Yang, Wang and Wilkes (2009) Conservation Biology

Moisture dynamics in walls: response to micro-environment and climate change

Hall, Hamilton, Hoff, Viles and Eklund (2010) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Climate change and groundwater: a short review

Dragoni and Sukhija (2008) Geological Society

Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest

MacDonald (2010) PNAS

The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels

Andrews and Piers M Forster (2010) Environmental Research Letters

Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation

– McKenzie, Aucamp, Bais, Björn, Ilyas and Madronich (2011) Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences

Changes in global‐mean precipitation in response to warming, greenhouse gas forcing and black carbon

Frieler, Meinshausen, Schneider von Deimling, Andrews and Forster (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

Solomon, Plattner, Knutti and Friedlingstein (2009) PNAS

Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations

– Zickfeld, Montenegro, Archer, Meissner and Weaver (2009) Journal of Climate

Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean

Abram, Gagan, Cole, Hantoro and Mudelsee (2008) Nature Geoscience

Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux

Hegglin and Shepherd (2009) Nature Geoscience

Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean

Di Lorenzo, Cobb, Furtado, Schneider, Anderson, Bracco,  Alexander and Vimont (2010) Nature Geoscience

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

– Zahn and von Storch (2010) Nature

Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes

– Lenderink and Meijgaard (2008) Nature Geoscience

Attribution of polar warming to human influence

– Gillett, Stone, Stott, Nozawa, Karpechko, Hegerl, Wehner and Jones (2008) Nature Geoscience

The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change

Böning, Dispert, Visbeck, Rintoul and Schwarzkopf (2008) Nature Geoscience

Unprecedented recent warming of surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

Conroy, Restrepo, Overpeck, Steinitz-Kannan, Cole,  Bush and Colinvaux (2009) Nature Geoscience

Changes in Precipitation Extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a Warming Climate

Chu, Chen and Schroeder (2010) Journal of Climate

El Nino in a changing climate

Yeh, Kug, Dewitte, Kwon, Kirtman and Jin (2009) Nature

A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes

– Hanson, Nicholls, Ranger, Hallegatte, Corfee-Morlot, Herweijer, Chateau (2011) Climatic Change

Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature

– Lacis, Schmidt, Rind and Ruedy (2010) Science

Stratigraphy of the Anthropocene

Zalasiewicz1, Williams, Fortey, Smith, Barry, Coe, Bown, Rawson, Gale, Gibbard, Gregory, Hounslow, Kerr, Pearson, Knox, Powell, Waters, Marshall, Oates and Stone (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

– Rockström, Steffen, Noone, Persson, Chapin III, Lambin, Lenton, Scheffer, Folke, Schellnhuber, Nykvist, De Wit, Hughes, van der Leeuw, Rodhe, Sörlin, Snyder, Costanza, Svedin, Falkenmark, Karlberg, Corell, Fabry, Hansen, Walker, Liverman, Richardson, Crutzen and Foley (2009) Ecology and Society

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice

– Liu and Curry (2010) PNAS

Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions

– Gillett, Arora, Zickfeld, Marshall and Merryfield (2011) Nature Geoscience

Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

-Seidel, Fu, Randel and Reichler (2008) Nature Geoscience

Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

– Woth, Weisse and von Storch (2006) Ocean Dynamics

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

– Min, Zhang, Zwiers and Hegerl (2011) Nature

Climate Change, Hurricanes and Tropical  Storms, and Rising Sea Level in coastal wetlands

– Michener, Blood, Bildstein, Brinson and Gardner (1997) Ecological Applications (oldest article in the list)

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

– Williams and Funk (2011) Climate Dynamics


Explained best by Dr. Paul Nurse;

Consensus can be used like a dirty word. Consensus is actually the position of the experts at the time and if it’s working well – it doesn’t always work well – but if it’s working well, they evaluate the evidence. You make your reputation in science by actually overturning that, so there’s a lot of pressure to do it. But if over the years the consensus doesn’t move you have to wonder is the argument, is the evidence against the consensus good enough.

Expert credibility in climate change

– Anderegga, Prallb, Harold and Schneider (2010) PNAS

Moving beyond scientific agreement: An Editorial comment on “Climate Change: a profile of US climate scientists’ perspectives”

– Anderegg (2010) Climatic Change

Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

– Kriegler, Hallc, Held, Dawson and Schellnhuber (2009) PNAS

On the Strength of Models etc.

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the IPCC Ensemble of Global Coupled Model Simulations

– Kharin, Zwiers, Zhang and Hegerl (2007) Journal of Climate

Interdecadal modulation of El Niño amplitude during the past millennium

Li, Xie, Cook, Huang, D’Arrigo, Liu, Ma and Zheng (2011) Nature Climate Change

20th century climate change in the tropical Andes: Observations and model results

Vuille, Mathias (2003) Climatic Change

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species

Zimmermann, Yoccoz, Edwards Jr, Meier, Thuiller, Guisan, Schmatz and Pearman (2009) PNAS (.NEW.)

On the Accuracy of Deriving Climate Feedback Parameters from Correlations between Surface Temperature and Outgoing Radiation

– Murphy and Forster (2010) Journal of Climate

Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

– Rahmstorf, Cazenave, Church, Hansen, Keeling, Parker and Somerville (2007) Science

When could global warming reach 4°C?

Betts, Collins, Hemming, Jones, Lowe and Sanderson (2011)Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Jackson, Betancourt, Booth and Gray (2009) PNAS

Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios

– Tomassini, Knutti, Plattner, van Vuuren, Stocker, Howarth and Borsuk (2010) Climatic Change

Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models

– Boberg, Berg, Thejll,  Gutowski and Christensen (2010) Climate Dynamics

How Much Do Different Land Models Matter for Climate Simulation? Part II: A Decomposed View of the Land–Atmosphere Coupling Strength

– Wei, Paul A. Dirmeyer, and Zhichang Guo (2010) Journal of Climate

Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment

Fowler, Cooley, Sain and Thurston (2010) Extremes (Not SCI Listed)

Do Climate Models Underestimate the Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Cover?

– Winton (2011) Journal of Climate

Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable?

– Stephens and Hu (2010) Environmental Research Letters

Mechanisms of Climate Change in the Semiarid African Sahel: The Local View

– Giannini (2010)Journal of Climate

Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content

AchutaRao, Ishii, Santer, Gleckler, Taylor, Barnett, Pierce, Stouffer and Wigley (2007) PNAS

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

– Knutti, Stocker, Joos and Plattner (2002) Nature

Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants

– Levy II, Schwarzkopf, Horowitz, Ramaswamy and Findell (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research

Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature

– Knutti, Meehl, Allen and Stainforth (2006) Journal of Climate

Optimal detection and attribution of climate change: sensitivity of results to climate model differences

– Hegerl, Stott, Allen, Mitchell, Tett and Cubasch (2000) Climate Dynamics

The contribution of timescales to the temperature response of climate models

Jarvis and Li (2011) Climate Dynamics

Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations

– Boé, Hall and Qu (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

The Effects of Subgrid-Scale Parameterizations in a Zonally Averaged Ocean Model

– Knutti and Stocker (2000)  Journal of Physical Oceanography

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

– Stainforth, Aina, Christensen, Collins, Faull, Frame, Kettleborough, Knight, Martin, Murphy, Piani, Sexton, Smith, Spicer, Thorpe and Allen (2005) Nature

We are adding CO2 into the atmosphere

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

– Raupach, Marland, Ciais, Le Quéré, Canadell, Klepper and Field (2007) PNAS

The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago

– Ruddiman (2003) Climatic Change (.NEW.) – Really interesting

Chemical signatures of the Anthropocene in the Clyde estuary, UK: sediment-hosted Pb, 207/206Pb, total petroleum hydrocarbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbon and polychlorinated biphenyl pollution records

Vane, Chenery, Harrison, Kim, Moss-Hayes and Jones (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes

Jones, Christidis and Stott (2011) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Update on CO2 emissions

Friedlingstein, Houghton, Marland, Hackler, Boden, Conway, Canadell, Raupach, Ciais and Le Quéré (2010) Nature Geoscience (Correspondence)

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Le Quéré, Raupach, Canadell, Marland et al. (full contributors list included following the article) (2009) Nature Geoscience

Climate and human influences on global biomass burning over the past two millennia

Marlon, Bartlein, Carcaillet, Gavin, Harrison, Higuera, Joos, Power and Prentice (2008) Nature Geoscience

Contributions of past and present human generations to committed warming caused by carbon dioxide

Friedlingstein and Solomon (2005) PNAS

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

– Allen, Frame, Huntingford, Jones, Lowe, Meinshausen and Meinshausen (2009) Nature

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

– Gregory, Jones, Cadule and Friedlingstein (2009) Journal of Climate

Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate–Carbon Cycle Models

– Plattner, Knutti, Joos, Stocker, von Bloh, Brovkin, Cameron, Driesschaert, Dutkiewicz, Eby, Edwards, Fichefet, Hargreaves, Jones, Loutre, Matthews, Mouchet, Müller, Nawrath, Price, Sokolov, Strassmann, and Weaver (2008) Journal of Climate

Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions

– Matthews and Caldeira (2008) Geophysical Research Letters

Economics, Resources, Policies and climate change (in SCI listed journals)

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

– Büntgen, Tegel, Nicolussi, McCormick, Frank, Trouet, Kaplan, Herzig, Heussner, Wanner, Luterbacher and Esper (2011) Science

Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate

Hsiang, Meng and Cane (2011) Nature

Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change

Montzka, Dlugokencky and Butler (2011) Nature

Societal responses to the Anthropocene

Tickell (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Anticipating ocean acidification’s economic consequences for commercial fisheries

– Cooley and Doney (2009) Environmental Research Letters

Historical and future anthropogenic emission pathways derived from coupled climate–carbon cycle simulations

– Roeckner, Giorgetta, Crueger, Esch and Pongratz (2011) Climatic Change

Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience

Spence, Poortinga, Butler and Pidgeon (2011) Nature Climate Change

Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle-emission standards

Shindell, Faluvegi, Walsh, Anenberg, Van Dingenen, Muller, Austin, Koch and Milly (2011) Nature Climate Change

Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras

McSweeney and Coomes (2011) PNAS – a great positive paper

Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

– Ciscar, Iglesias, Feyen, Szabó, Van Regemorter, Amelunge, Nicholls, Watkiss, Christensen, Dankers, Luis Garrote, Goodess, Hunt, Moreno, Richards and  Soria (2011) PNAS

Economic Growth, Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss: Distributive Justice for the Global North and South

– Rosales (2008) Conservation Biology

Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation

Kopp and Mauzerall (2010) PNAS

Uncertainty, rationality and cooperation in the context of climate change

Raihani and Aitken (2011) Climatic Change

Characterizing the tropospheric ozone response to methane emission controls and the benefits to climate and air quality

– Fiore, West, Horowitz, Naik, and Schwarzkopf (2008) Journal of Geophysical Research

Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations

– Ford, Pearce, Prno, Duerden, Berrang Ford, Smith and Beaumier (2011) Climatic Change

How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

– Lowe, Huntingford, Raper, Jones, Liddicoat and Gohar (2009) Environmental Research Letters

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: household energy

– Wilkinson, Smith, Davies, Adair, Armstrong, Barrett, Bruce, Haines, Hamilton, Oreszczyn, Ridley, Tonne and Chalabi (2009) The Lancet

How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?

– Washington, Knutti, Meehl, Teng, Tebaldi, Lawrence, Buja, and Strand (2009) Geophysical Research Letters

Emergent dynamics of the climate–economy system in the Anthropocene

Kellie-Smith and Cox (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A – Really interesting

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

Lee and Jetz (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Influence of feedback on the stochastic evolution of simple climate systems

Mahadevan and Deutch (2009) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required

Vaughan, Lenton and Shepherd (2009) Climatic Change

Parallel Pursuit of Near-Term and Long-Term Climate Mitigation

Jackson (2009) Science

Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

Davis, Caldeira and Matthews (2010) Science

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Pacala and Socolow (2004) Science

On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity

Annan and Hargreaves (2011) Climatic Change

Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Frolicher and Joos (2010) Climate Dynamics

Abrupt Climate Change

– Alley, Marotzke, Nordhaus, Overpeck, Peteet, Pielke Jr., Pierrehumbert, Rhines, Stocker, Talley, and Wallace (2003) Science

Earth System Science for Global Sustainability: Grand Challenges

– Reid, Chen, Goldfarb, Hackmann, Lee, Mokhele, Ostrom, Raivio, Rockström, Schellnhuber and Whyte (2010) Science

Linking Policy on Climate and Food

– Godfray, Pretty, Thomas, Warham and Beddington (2011) Science


Regional climate response to solar-radiation management

Ricke, Morgan and Allen (2010) Nature Geoscience

Ocean Acidification

Near-future levels of ocean acidification reduce fertilization success in a sea urchin

– Havenhand, Buttler, Thorndyke and Williamson (2008) Current Biology

Sensitivity of coccolithophores to carbonate chemistry and ocean acidification

Beaufort, Probert, de Garidel-Thoron, Bendif, Ruiz-Pino, Metzl, Goyet, Buchet, Coupel, Grelaud, Rost, Rickaby and de Vargas (2011) Nature

Losers and winners in coral reefs acclimatized to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations

Fabricius, Langdon, Uthicke, Humphrey, Noonan, De’ath, Okazaki, Muehllehner, Glas and Lough (2011) Nature Climate Change

A nonlinear calcification response to CO2-induced ocean acidification by the coral Oculina arbuscula

Ries, Cohen and McCorkle (2010) Coral Reefs

New observations of CO2-induced acidification in the northern Adriatic Sea over the last quarter century

– Luchetta, Cantoni and Catalano (2010) Chemistry and Ecology

Early Larval Development of the Sydney Rock Oyster Saccostrea glomerata Under Near-Future Predictions of CO2-Driven Ocean Acidification

– Watson, Southgate, Tyler and Peck (2009) Journal of Shellfish Research

The societal challenge of ocean acidification

Turley, Eby, Ridgwell, Schmidt, Findlay, Brownlee, Riebesell, Fabry, Feely and Gattuso (2010) Marine Pollution Bulletin

Ocean Acidification: The Other CO2 Problem

– Doney, Fabry, Feely and Kleypas (2009) Annual Review of Marine Science

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes

– Fabry, Seibel, Feely and Orr (2008) Journal of Marine Science

Anthropogenic modification of the oceans

Tyrrell (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Future ocean increasingly transparent to low-frequency sound owing to carbon dioxide emissions

Ilyina, Zeebe and Brewer (2010) Nature Geoscience

Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification

– Hoegh-Guldberg, Mumby, Hooten, Steneck, Greenfield, Gomez, Harvell, Sale, Edwards, Caldeira, Knowlton, Eakin, Iglesias-Prieto, Muthiga, Bradbury, Dubi and Hatziolos (2007) Science

Ocean acidification may increase calcification rates, but at a cost

Wood, Spicer and Widdicombe (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Paleo-perspectives on ocean acidification

Pelejero, Calvo and Hoegh-Guldberg (2010) Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Ocean Warming, Sea Level and Glacial Melt

Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

– Grinsted, Moore and Jevrejeva (2010) Climate Dynamics

Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise

Jacob, Wahr, Pfeffer and Sean Swenson (2012) Nature

Tracing the upper ocean’s “missing heat”

– Katsman and van Oldenborgh (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

The role of ocean thermal expansion in Last Interglacial sea level rise

– McKay, Overpeck and Otto-Bliesner (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

– Raitso, Hoteit, Prihartato, Chronis, Triantafyllou and Abualnaja (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Distribution and trends in Arctic sea ice age through spring 2011

– Maslanik, Stroeve, Fowler and Emery (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

The Greenland Sea Jet: A mechanism for wind-driven sea ice export through Fram Strait

– van Angelen, van den Broeke and Kwok (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions

– Pardaens, Lowe, Brown, Nicholls and de Gusmão (2011) Geophysical Research Letters

Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Gardner, Moholdt, Wouters, Wolken, Burgess, Sharp, Cogley, Braun and Labine (2011) Nature

Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic

Stephenson, Smith and Agnew (2011) Nature Climate Change

A 2000 year record of Atlantic Water temperature variability from the Malangen Fjord, northeastern North Atlantic

– Hald, Salomonsen, Husum and Wilson (2011) The Holocene

Outlet glacier and margin elevation changes: Near-coastal thinning of the Greenland ice sheet

– Abdalati, Krabill, Frederick, Manizade, Martin, Sonntag, Swift, Thomas, Wright and Yungel (2001) Journal of Geophysical Research (.NEW.)

Elevation changes of ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

– Abdalati, Krabill, Frederick, Manizade, Martin, Sonntag, Swift, Thomas, Yungel and Koerner (2004) Journal of Geophysical Research (.NEW.)

Rapid Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level

Arendt, Echelmeyer, Harrison, Lingle and Valentine (2002) Science

A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic

– Comiso (2002) Geophysical Research letters

Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century

Cook, Fox, Vaughan and Ferrigno (2005) Science

Kilimanjaro Glaciers: Recent areal extent from satellite data and new interpretation of observed 20th century retreat rates

– Cullen, Mölg, Kaser, Hussein, Steffen and Hardy (2006) Geophysical Research letters

Ice Core Evidence for Antarctic Sea Ice Decline Since the 1950s

Curran, van Ommen, Morgan, Phillips and Palmer (2003) Science

Role of small ice shelves in sea-level rise

– Dupont and Alley (2006) Geophysical Research letters

Glaciers of the outer and inner tropics: A different behaviour but a common response to climatic forcing

– Favier, Wagnon and Ribstein (2004) Geophysical Research letters

Tropical climate change recorded by a glacier in the central Andes during the last decades of the twentieth century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, 16°S

– Francou, Vuille, Wagnon, Mendoza and Sicart (2003) Journal of Geophysical Research

Rapid retreat and acceleration of Helheim Glacier, east Greenland

– Howat, Joughin, Tulaczyk and Gogineni (2005) Geophysical Research letters

Satellite Evidence for an Arctic Sea Ice Cover in Transformation

Johannessen, Shalina and Miles (1999) Science

Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability

– Johannessen, Bengtsson, Miles, Kuzmina, Semenov, Alekseev, Nagurnyi, Zakharov, Bobylev, Pettersson, Hasselmann and Cattle (2004) Tellus A

Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland’s Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier

– Joughin, Abdalati and Fahnestock (2004) Nature

Spatial and temporal melt variability at Helheim Glacier, East Greenland, and its effect on ice dynamics

– Andersen, Larsen, Nettles, Elosegui, van As, Hamilton, Stearns, Davis, Ahlstrøm, de Juan, Ekström, Stenseng, Khan, Forsberg and Dahl-Jensen (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Gregory and Huybrechts (2006) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

Twentieth century sea level: An enigma

Munk (2002) PNAS

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise

Overpeck, Otto-Bliesner, Miller, Muhs, Alley and Kiehl (2006) Science

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

– Domingues, Church, White, Gleckler, Wijffels, Barker and Dunn (2008) Nature

Maritime boundaries in a rising sea

Houghton, Vafeidis, Neumann and Proelss (2010) Nature Geoscience

Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise

Pfeffer, Harper and O’Neel (2008) Science

Changes in Arctic clouds during intervals of rapid sea ice loss

– Vavrus, Holland and Bailey (2011) Climate Dynamics

Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height

Trenhaile (2011) Climatic Change

Revisiting Greenland ice sheet mass loss observed by GRACE

– Schrama and Wouters (2011) Journal of Geophysical Research (h/t ‘Warm’)

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: distribution of increased mass loss with climate warming; 2003–07 versus 1992–2002

– Zwally, Li, Brenner, Beckley, Cornejo, DiMarzio, Giovinetto, Neumann, Robbins, Saba, Yi, and Wang (2011) Journal of Glaciology (h/t ‘Warm’)

The Role of Natural Versus Forced Change in Future Rapid Summer Arctic Ice Loss

– Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, and Bailey (2008) Geophysical Monograph

Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones

Nicholls and Cazenave (2010) Science

Global Decadal Upper-Ocean Heat Content as Viewed in Nine Analyses

– Carton and Santorelli (2008) Journal of Climate

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

Church, White, Aarup, Wilson, Woodworth, Domingues, Hunter, Lambeck (2008) Sustainability Science (Not SCI listed)

Robust warming of the global upper ocean

Lyman, Good, Gouretski, Ishii, Johnson, Palmer, Smith and Willis (2010) Nature

Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate

Han, Meehl, Rajagopalan, Fasullo, Hu, Lin, Large, Wang,  Quan, Trenary, Wallcraft, Shinoda and Yeager (2010) Nature Geoscience

Rapid submarine melting of the calving faces of West Greenland glaciers

Rignot, Koppes and Velicogna (2010) Nature Geoscience

How much is the western Mediterranean really warming and salting?

– Vargas-Yáñez, Zunino, Benali, Delpy, Pastre, Moya, García-Martínez and Tel (2010) Journal of Geophysical Research

How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?

– Meehl, Washington, Collins, Arblaster, Hu, Buja, Strand and Teng (2005) Science

Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World’s Oceans

Barnett, Pierce and Schnur (2001) Science

Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements

Chen, Wilson, Blankenship and Tapley (2009) Nature Geoscience

Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes

Alley, Clark, Huybrechts and Joughin (2005) Science

A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise

– Church and White (2006) Geophysical Research Letters

Increased flow speed on a large East Antarctic outlet glacier caused by subglacial floods

Stearns, Smith and Hamilton (2008) Nature Geoscience

The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis

– Dasgupta, Laplante, Meisner, Wheeler and Yan (2009) Climatic Change

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

Yin, Schlesinger and Stouffer (2009) Nature Geoscience

Measurements of Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in Antarctica

Velicogna and Wahr (2006) Science

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage

– Sundal, Shepherd, Nienow, Hanna, Palmer and Huybrechts (2011) Nature

Recent Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

– Shepherd and Wingham (2007) Science

Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water

– Spielhagen, Werner, Sørensen, Zamelczyk, Kandiano, Budeus, Husum, Marchitto, Hald (2011) Science

Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

– Radic and Hock (2011) Nature Geoscience

Human Health, food and water security and AGW

Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands

– Hay, Cox, Rogers, Randolph, Stern, Shanks, Myers and Snow (2002) Nature

Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials

Lobell, Bänziger, Magorokosho and Vivek (2011) Nature Climate Change (.NEW.)

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Craufurd and Wheeler (2009) Journal of Experimental Biology (.NEW.)

Climate change and human health: present and future risks

– McMichael, Woodruff and Hales (2006) The Lancet

Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland

– Pascual, Cazelles, Bouma, Chaves and Koelle (2008) Proceeding of the Royal Society B

Recent warming by latitude associated with increased length of ragweed pollen season in central North America

Ziska, Knowlton, Rogers, Dalan, Tierney, Elder, Filley, Shropshire, Ford, Hedberg, Fleetwood, Hovanky, Kavanaugh, Fulford, Vrtis, Patz, Portnoy, Coates, Bielory and Frenz (2011) PNAS

Floods in the Sahel: an analysis of anomalies, memory, and anticipatory learning

– Tschakert, Sagoe, Ofori-Darko and Codjoe (2010) Climatic Change

Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates

– Al-Qinna, Hammouri, Obeidat and Ahmad (2010) Climatic Change

Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State

– Rosenberg, Keys, Booth, Hartley, Burkey, Steinemann and Lettenmaier (2010) Climatic Change

Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission

– Costello, Abbas, Allen, Ball, Bell, Bellamy, Friel, Groce, Johnson, Kett, Lee, Levy, Maslin,  McCoy, McGuire, Montgomery, Napier, Pagel, Patel, Puppim de Oliveira, Redclift, Rees,  Rogger, Scott, Stephenson, Twigg, Wolff  and Patterson (2009) The Lancet

Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise

Bosello, Roson and Tol (2007) Environmental & Resource Economics (Not SCI listed)

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

– Tonnang, Kangalawe and Yanda (2010) Malaria Journal

Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia

– Demeke, Keil and Zeller (2011) Climatic Change (Really interesting study)

Impacts of biofuels on climate change, water use, and land use

– Delucchi (2010) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Impacts of climate change on historical locust outbreaks in China

Yu, Shen and Liu (2009) Journal of Geophysical Research

Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839–2009

– Olmsteada and Rhode (2011) PNAS

For a laugh, peer-reviewed literature on AGW denial

Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?

– Diethelm and McKee (2009) European Journal of Public Health

Apocalypse Soon? Dire Messages Reduce Belief in Global Warming by Contradicting Just-World Beliefs

– Feinberg and Willer (2010) Psychological Science

The Psychology of Global Warming: Improving the Fit between the Science and the Message

– Newell and Pitman (2010) American Meteorological Society

Ten years to prevent catastrophe?: Discourses of climate change and international development in the UK press

– Doulton and Brown (2009) Global Environmental Change

Local Warming Daily Temperature Change Influences Belief in Global Warming

Li, Johnson and Zaval (2011) Psychological Science

Why do people misunderstand climate change? Heuristics, mental models and ontological assumptions

– Chen (2011) Climatic Change (For interest. Not counted in this list)

The real holes in climate science

– Schiermeier (2010) Nature (an interesting, referenced news piece not counted in this list)

Self-censorship and science: a geographical review of media coverage of climate tipping points

– Antilla (2010) Public Understanding of Science (For interest. Not SCI listed and not counted in this list)

Related fossil fuel environmental impacts etc.

(Not counted in the list above)

Long-termpersistence of oil from the Exxon Valdez spill in two-layer beaches

– Li and Boufadel (2010) Nature Geoscience

The physical concept of climate forcing

– Liepert (2010)  Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climatic Change

Insect-damaged fossil leaves record food web response to ancient climate change and extinction

– Wilf (2008) New Phytologist

Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere

Ellis (2011) Proceeding of the Royal Society A

High microbial activity on glaciers: importance to the global carbon cycle

– Anesio, Hodson, Fritz, Psenner and Sattler (2009) Global Change Biology

Genuinely excellent books on meeting climate change

(Obviously not counted in the list above)

Lifeboat Cities

By Brendan Gleeson

A Blueprint for a Safer Planet: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and Prosperity

By Lord Nicholas Stern

Opportunities Beyond Carbon: Looking forward to a sustainable world

Edited by John O’Brien

Journal listed

Annals of the Association of American Geographers (Not SCI listed)
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Annual Review of Marine Science
Annual Review of Physiology
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Biodiversity and Conservation
Biological Conservation
Biology Letters (Not SCI listed)
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Chemistry and Ecology
Climate Dynamics
Climate of the Past (Not on the SCI list)
Climatic Change
Conservation Biology
Coral Reefs
Current Biology
Current Science
Earth Interactions
Ecological Applications
Ecological Monograph
Ecology and Society
Environmental & Resource Economics (Not SCI listed)
Environmental Research Letters
Eso, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (Not SCI listed)
European Journal of Public Health
Fucntional Plant Biology
Geological Society
Geological Society of America Bulletin
Geophysical Monograph
Geophysical Research Letters
Global and Planetary Change
Global Change Biology
Global Ecology and Biogeography
Global Environmental Change
GSA Today
Hydrological Processes
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
International Journal of Climatology
International Journal of Mass Spectrometry
Journal of Animal Ecology
Journal of Climate
Journal of Experimental Biology
Journal of Geophysical Research
Journal of Glaciology
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Marine Science
Journal of Physical Oceanography
Journal of plant nutrition and soil science
Journal of Shellfish Research
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Landscape Ecology
Malaria Journal
Marine Ecology – Progress Series
Marine Pollution Bulletin
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Volume 1
Nature Climate Change
Nature Geoscience
New Phytologist
Ocean Dynamics
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes
Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences
Plant Biology
Proceeding of the Royal Society A
Proceeding of the Royal Society B
Psychological Science (Not SCI listed)
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Reviews of Geophysics
Soil Biology and Biochemistry
Sustainability Science (Not SCI listed)
The Lancet
Trends in Ecology and Evolution

Before hoards of trolls descend upon this comment thread to “inform” me that ‘AX paper refutes BX’ or ‘ecological papers don’t prove CO2 is to blame’ or whatever else their particular slant might actually be, let me provide a word of warning.

I won’t actually entertain this public debate over AGW – as explained above, I’m simply constructing a counter-weight to Poptech’s list where it might be linked to in the future and to provide a good resource for recent papers for interested individuals.

Geophysical Research Letters

41 thoughts on “430+ Genuine Science Papers Supporting Confidence in the AGW theory and Relevant Environmental Concern

    1. Cheers Scott, and sorry that your comment went on moderation.

      I became aware of Poptech’s list through that Global Warming Super Heroes site – they looked into it (and referred to Greenfyre who had done so previously). I tried my best not to censor Adam and Poptech, but it got beyond the joke and a large part of their ‘scepticism’ focused on that ridiculous list of Poptech’s. GWSH showed just how few were relevant (and it seems SkS went even further), but it doesn’t help people like Adam and Poptech – GWSH, SkS and climate scientists are apparently simply alarmists. Maybe providing excellent recent papers that state contrary to their point could work – if not, at least I’m making a stand for science against the misinformers.

      Cheers for the link – hopefully readers follow it too. I’m tired of accommodating the ‘unconvinced’ but highly opinionated here.


    2. Why are you refusing to allow my post rebutting the nonsense from Skeptical Science? Afraid people will learn the truth?

      [Ah ha, yep, that must be it – I’m afraid people will learn the truth. It’s not like you’ve posted it here and here previously… You talk like such a conspiracy theorist.]


      1. I posted here in direct response to a false claim. So why are you censoring the post here? It still says “Your comment is awaiting moderation.”

        [Issue resolved]


  1. Tim , 200 looks like a lot of work get that together and you know what they will stay Ah but our list is 800 so we win . the whole thing is ridiculous as you say .
    But will find it interesting reading at least , maybe POPTECH could read some of the papers to and gives us all his considered opinion .

    I wonder if AGW didn’t involve having to make such drastic changes to decarbonise our lives , thereby also making it a political issue ,these people would really care about the science and if it’s true or not .
    You don’t see millions of blogs of non scientists questioning quantum mechanics or whether bosons or quarks really exist or spin up or only down , that quarks can only spin to the right and it’s a leftwing commo plot to get us to believe that they spin to the left . Imagine that .
    Imagine also if climate scientist said yes C02 causes AWG but we can let it rise to 7000ppm before there is dangerous warming , therefore we can burn all our oil and coal and be fine for 500yrs before we need to do anything , it would be a non political issue . Most people would go Oh well that’s good and get on with life .

    It would ironical most likely be the greens who would be saying the science flawed and the right wingers saying no we trust our scientist , besides all the science is peer reviewed the debate is over !! .

    See Poptech you could have just as easily found yourself defending the scientist that say AWG is real if only the physics of the raditive forcings was slightly different .


    1. Yeah, I’m waiting for the ‘war of size’ – these characters are that immature after all. I’m sure you could put together practically endless lists of crap. It’s more difficult compiling a relevant list of quality science literature. I had around 80 papers that were useful on my computer and then had to do research for the rest. I found some great stuff – especially the other denial papers and the Exxon oil spill – I was amazed by the reading I found.

      A good example of what you’re talking is the ozone hole. For a short while there was indeed a committed group of deniers with the same kind of “sciences” papers to back them, ‘disproving’ that our CFC’s were responsible. That the alternative was fairly cheap and easy saw such nonsense fall away pretty quickly. As you say, there’s no easy option for decarbonisation. The denial is with us until we can prove the future isn’t so bleak without carbon – Gen[A]! 🙂


  2. [Corrected, with required comment links included. You’re the one that includes a social article written but the continuously debunked Monckton in the same league as scientifically peer-reviewed literature and have washed your hands of arguing it’s validity so I will not remove my points of how bizarre I find this stance to be. I know you feel you’ve debunked the SkS, Greenfyre and GWSH article on your list – something you no doubt hold with as much conviction as you hold for the validity of your list. Thus, I’m not discrediting your list by attacking it; I’m simply doing as you do to demonstrate it as unscientific. However, I’ve made two improvements – my articles don’t contradict each other and the journals are almost entirely the most respected and popular science journals globally. I figured that someone who has formed a haphazard list of random papers that together give an inaccurate view on where the scientific evidence sits and encourages others to demand the list be ‘debunked or shut up’ would be a little thicker skinned (no, none of your comments will be posted – you certainly have time to waste complaining). The insult I was forced to endure by your fan, Adam, was enough to inspire me to provide my own counter list of papers – I fail to see why you of all people would have a problem with this.]


    1. You really need to get out more, there’s more to life than being an angry ‘citizen scientist’.
      Again, I’m intrigued that you of all people have taken offence to this list. I assure you, I’m happy for people to read over our exchange to date – there really isn’t much point pursuing it further, so why worry about censoring? I fixed up your concerns and know all too well how much you feel you’ve vanquished every rebuttal to your list – but it’s so funny how quick you are to get grump about mine, with a thrown in mild-threat. I just don’t get what drives people like you. I care about a wonderful, rich and diverse world for my children, while you seem to find nothing wrong in trusting a small group of contrarian scientists who have proven ties to fossil fuel money and The Heartland Institute (do you honestly think, after their tobacco support that they have the wider communities concerns at heart or industry?)


      1. I have not taken offense to your list but the incorrect claims you have made regarding me in the commentary accompanying it.

        Why would you want people to read incomplete conversations? How would that accurately represent what was said? It surely does not represent my position.

        I have refuted every major criticism of the list because they were all based on misinformation, false claims, lies and strawman arguments.

        What drives me is correcting misinformation about myself and my work.


      2. I’m tired of our conversation – why would I entertain it further?
        I’ve corrected the claim that Adam didn’t recruit you (but left it a puzzling fact that you showed up soon after I initially mentioned you to him in a comment thread)
        I’ve reworded my points and linked back to your comments so others can see if I’ve done you justice.
        I will not entertain rubbish about Monckton because that is beyond the joke – only denial of direct evidence can support supporting him and believing “free speech” of his calibre has a place in science (one only needs to point out the damage his done to public education to put the man’s point beyond reason)
        You wanted me to read some denial books
        You admit to basing your understanding of the relevant science from “personal research”
        And yes – you think you’ve successfully challenged ever last criticism of your list… so what? I disagree, many others disagree.
        What have I got wrong?


      3. You are always tired of having anyone correct any of you misinformation. I would be too if I stated as many false claims as you made.

        Just because I know how to use the Internet is not a cause for a conspiracy claim.

        It is quite rich that you are not entertaining anything about the topic you brought up! I never brought Monckton up.

        I support free speech period, I am disappointed you don’t but this is not surprising.

        You obviously have no intent on being intellectually honest about any of this and instead called both books that I suggested as “denial” books when I explicitly told you they do not reject AGW theory.

        I admit to being unconvinced of AGW Alarm by my extensive research.

        I have successfully challenged every major criticism of the list because each and every one was based on misinformation, false claims, lies and strawman arguments.

        While you link to my replies, that does not include the ones that never appeared.


      4. I’m sure you are tired – I see you popping up everywhere to defend your list.

        Yes, you did bring up Monckton by his inclusion on your list.

        I too support free speech, but likewise, I support accuracy of information. When both are under question, I choose accuracy over free speech – this whole denial campaign is exactly what threatens free speech.

        You too obviously have no intent on accuracy of information – that you would refer to grey literature and a number of your listed article rather than the excellent papers included on my list above.

        ‘Extensive research’ – I get so sick of this. There’s no quality control. My research was continually put under evaluation as a university student and since in my various positions. Adam is exactly the same – it’s being open minded without critical training. You’re previous comment about computer models demonstrates as much.

        Please, your other comments where the same repetitive points. I don’t know why you think I owe you that? You’ve got your own blog – bitch there about me. What do I care? I am an environmental scientist and I’ve provided so far more than 200 papers of which I believe to be good quality. I don’t believe your list comes close. That said, I don’t care even about all that; as long as you promote people like Adam demanding I debunk such a list, I’ll build on this one.


      5. I am not remotely tired.

        No I did not bring up Monckton in any of our discussions you did. His inclusion on my list has nothing to do with the fact that you brought him up for debate.

        I support accuracy out of free speech not over it.

        I had no idea that recommending two books to someone would be twisted around into some silly “grey literature” argument. My mistake believing you had an open mind.

        My list is very and fully cited.

        I have had extensive training in research and analysis from my university years through my current employment.

        Your lack of a computer science education explains why you do not understand my comments about computer models. I find this common with most natural scientists.

        You seem confused about Adam and myself. While I have conversed with him on various occasions after visiting sites he was already visiting, he is an independent mind coming to his own conclusions. So I am not promoting anything outside of independent thought.

        People are free to ignore every single paper and argument made in them on my list. I am just making sure people know they exist.


  3. Well, for my part, I’m keeping this list.
    Handy that your categories are very similar to mine. What a bonus!

    I know that you get fed up from time to time, but the rest of us appreciate your efforts. Thank you.


    1. As Poptech mentioned – there’s been a lot more in the background (Adam especially was becoming quite concerning), but if anything it’s made me want to create this list even more so – besides the counter-weight to the apparently indestructible Poptech 800 list, as you say, it’s actually starting to form a really nice list of useful papers. Unfortunately a lot are behind paywalls. The few that surprised me where the others I threw under denial header and the Exxon paper at the bottom.. interesting reading.

      I’m glad you find the categories useful. To be honest, I was looking at the papers and realised I was getting lazy splitting them up – so I’m sure a few should go in another spot.

      Thanks for the kind words. I suspect the frustration I’ve been feeling with these two characters has been written all over the blog of late (which I apologise for), but I’ve had some supporting comments and emails which has been great – sometimes you feel like it must be a waste as there doesn’t seem to be the dialogue. Oh; I’ll be ever growing this list also! 🙂


  4. Poptech I think Tim is suffering ennui at the insular nature of your arguments rather than tiredness .

    Now you insult him by calling him “Deranged” why do that ? oh because that’s your opinion yes , just like your opinion that the climate science is flawed , an opinion based on your research from reading (Web/books) other peoples work that the science is flawed , how are you really qualified to reach such a result ? , yes your intelligent your a computer analyst .
    Anyway what do civil engineers know about reviewing the effects of Co2 and it effects on ice -(Proceedings of the ICE – Civil Engineering, Volume 160, Issue 2, pp. 66-72, May 2007)
    – David Bellamy, Jack Barrett ……………? why is it in a civil engineering pubication ?
    Alot of the papers I cant even access could you ? or did you just find papers that agreed with your opinion and add it and then what about these ,
    the same paper submitted in four different journals is this how you puff it up to 850 ?

    Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States, (Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 111, Number 14, pp. 1712-1718, November 2003)
    Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Wendy M. Novicoff

    Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States,
    (Climate Research, Volume 22, Number 2, pp. 175-184. September 2002)
    Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Wendy M. Novicoff, Patrick J. Michaels

    Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities
    (International Journal of Biometeorology, Volume 47, Number 3, pp. 166-175, May 2003)
    Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Wendy M. Novicoff, Patrick J. Michaels

    Seasonality of climate–human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change, (Climate Research, Volume 26, Number 1, pp. 61-76, April 2004)
    Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Wendy M. Novicoff

    ooh can feel the ennui kicking in :-O


    1. I called him deranged based on his behavior towards my comments and his obsession with Monckton.

      I’ve read both sides of the issue, the IPCC report and the skeptic arguments against it, many peer-reviewed papers on both sides, various other reports and yes (gasp) books. No single source formed my view.

      Anyway what do civil engineers know about reviewing the effects of Co2 and it effects on ice

      Peer-review does not mean reviewed by members of the profession a journal is named after but by experts in the field the paper is on.

      Alot of the papers I cant even access could you?

      I have read an abstract or summary for every paper on the list, unfortunately I cannot provide full access to all. Where I have obtained the full paper I have read all the conclusions, and many of these papers completely.

      the same paper submitted in four different journals is this how you puff it up to 850 ?

      This is incorrect, those are not identical papers, for instance they cover different date ranges or are of different lengths for an extended analysis. Yes they use similar data in some parts but are not the same paper. This is irrelevant as the list is intentionally kept well above the stated number so nothing is needed to “puff it up”.


      1. I bet, by stating that you’ve read the “sceptical arguments” against the IPCC report, you’re eluding to the Heartland Institutes NIPCC? If so, feel free to smoke another packet, because we all know smoking doesn’t cause cancer or heart disease, right?

        I’d suggest you try having a flip through those papers linked above.


      2. The NIPCC report is not a direct criticism but an independent report comparable to the IPCC report. Here are just some of the criticisms I have read of the IPCC report,

        Independent Summary for Policymakers: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (PDF) (64pgs) (Fraser Institute)
        Critical Topics in Global Warming: Supplementary Analysis of the Independent Summary for Policymakers (PDF) (130pgs) (Fraser Institute)

        Working Group (WG) I’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
        Working Group (WG) II’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): A Critique (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)
        Working Group (WG) III’s Contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): Be Sure to Read the Fine Print (PDF) (The Marshall Institute)

        Don’t bother with trying to smear the institutes as I have heard it all before.

        Please show where the Heartland Institute believes or has ever supported the notion that smoking does not cause cancer or heart disease.


      3. Fraser Institute? The Marshall Institute? lol
        Of course you’ve heard the whole “alarmist smear” spill on this before. It’s funny how your stance has to continually fall back on all these smear campaigns on contrarian arguments.

        “Please show where the Heartland Institute believes or has ever supported the notion that smoking does not cause cancer or heart disease.”
        Did you really mean to write this?

        That’s it, you’ve demonstrated enough of your belief system for this site. I encourage you to complain on your own site, but nothing else will be entertained here.. I hope my readers are happy with this, because I’m not a fan of censorship, but (in the timeless words of Graham Chapman) “this has just got silly!”


  5. In your list, the paper:

    Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change
    – Siddall, Stocker and Clark (2009) Nature Geoscience

    has been retracted:


    it predicted too low (!) sea level rise !

    New papers about see level rise and ice melting:


    Click to access j10j101.pdf

    In press:


    Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, and J. Lenaerts (2011),
    Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2011GL046583, in press.


    1. Cheers mate – I’ll fix it up asap!

      [It’s also worth noting for the ‘sceptical’ viewer that might happen upon this comment that this the point I’ve tried to discuss in the post above – science is not ‘how many’ but rather ‘how good’. Papers get retested which sometimes leads to a retraction – it all goes to further our understanding, not demonstrate our ignorance. I’ve discussed it previously, but such a tactic as solely pointing out the errors or questions a certain paper might raise, such as Poptech and others do, is the same as the “god of gaps”, or as what infuriates Dawkins when a new ‘missing link’ is found, but the creations instead now to see two gaps where there was originally one. It is unreasonable doubt that undermines the very basis of the modern “enlightened” society.]


  6. http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/10594/Welcome_to_Heartlands_Smokers_Lounge.html

    Junk Science

    How harmful is smoking to smokers? Public health advocates who claim one out of every three, or even one out of every two, smokers will die from a smoking-related illness are grossly exaggerating the real threat. The actual odds of a smoker dying from smoking before the age of 75 are about 1 in 12. In other words, 11 out of 12 life-long smokers don’t die before the age of 75 from a smoking-related disease.

    Heartland my not actually deny that that smoking cuases cancer but they do a damn fine job of trying to convince you that the risks are way lower than is reported .

    Lets face it the whole carbon /tabacco tax thing is really about indivduals right to do as they please and obfusacting the science is just part of the tactics .


    1. Cheers David,

      I think Andrew (aka Poptech) just exposed his ability to critically analyse data resources. He’s so quick to challenge us not to link to what he thinks are alarmist smear campaigns, but it’s difficult to argue with the actual source.


  7. And here Poptech a rebuttal of Levy and Marimont study and it flawed methodology ,

    A Critical Assessment of “Lies, Damned Lies, & 400,000 Smoking-Related Deaths” by Robert Levy and Rosalind Marimont Published in Regulation,* Fall 1998
    By Elizabeth M. Whelan, Sc.D., M.P.H., Alicia M. Lukachko, M.P.H.


    It took a bit of reading but I think they do a good job of showing the problems arising from the assumed effects of other factors and the fact that these are taken into consideration .


      1. lol – of course not. I’ve enjoyed your comments 🙂

        It’s strange – must have been something about your comment that the automated system assumed was spam. I was looking in there following Andrew complaining that his comments weren’t coming through (and he still accuses me of thoughtless censorship) and I couldn’t find any of his there (a point that I actually said to him, but rather than admitting that there was only one comment pending not a few as he suggested, he went on to complain about that one comment instead – slippery is the AGW “sceptic”).

        Please don’t hesitate if any other comments don’t make it through – I’ll do my best to find out what happened.


  8. I have written a new rebuttal based on your current wording,

    Rebuttal to Mothincarnate

    [There never is, or never will be, any way, but for submission, that anything I could write would possibly satisfy you… I’m very much aware of that now. I’ve explained why I feel ‘haphazard’ and ‘random’ fit and I’ve also let you voice your reasoning as to why they don’t fit, but if you need to further back it up on your own space, well, that’s entirely up to you.]


    1. Watch out, Andrew will say ” I don’t deny, I’m just not convinced, find me where I ever said I will not be satisfied or convinced, I know what would convince or satisfy me, it’s for me to know and you to find out, and even though I’ll never tell you what would change my mind, you still don’t get to call me a denier because I have a right to privacy and my opinion”


      1. ‘copy and paste’? I’ve noticed that the language he uses seems of that nature.
        It’s funny how quick he was from telling me that my tactic was censorship and attack (hardly correcting that lie when, after creating the alfoil hat, I made all the previously trashed comments that I could salvage live – oh that’s right, moving them while clearly linking them to their original position is still censorship in his view) only to do a 180 and expect me to censor you because he has problems with you. Unfortunately Andrew has a very odd way of looking at the world – and one I certainly don’t endeavour to understand.


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